Australia v England Tri-Series Final Betting: Who will win the wild west shootout?

Mitchell Johnson returns for Australia
Mitchell Johnson returns for Australia

Ed Hawkins previews the showpiece from Perth early on Sunday morning and says it will be decided by whoever bowls best...

"The first-innings average in the last five years at the Waca (11 ODI) is 231. In that time there have been only four scores of 275 or more."

Recommended Bet
Lay team batting first for 275 or more 2.01/1

Australia v England
Start time: 03:20
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Australia welcome back Mitchell Johnson on his home ground after giving him a month off. He is expected to take the place of Xavier Doherty as the hosts line-up an all-pace attack of Johnson, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc.

Shane Watson is unlikely to be risked ahead of the World Cup with a minor hamstring problem so Mitchell Marsh should continue to bat at No 5. Otherwise it is as you were with a top four of David Warner, Aaron Finch, Steve Smith and George Bailey.

Eoin Morgan, the captain, says confidence is growing in the camp. And it should be. England have impressed so far. After restricting India to 200 in the 'semi-final' in Perth, England found themselves in a hole at six down but they got up off the floor thanks to brilliant work from James Taylor and Jos Buttler.

England are made of sterner stuff these days and a symptom of that is that they will be unchanged for the third consecutive match. They could do with Ravi Bopara getting some runs, however. As their sixth bowler and 'finisher', they have no like-for-like replacement.

First-innings runs
The first-innings average in the last five years at the Waca (11 ODI) is 231. In that time there have been only four scores of 275 or more. India's struggle to 200 on Thursday was indicative of a pitch which suits the bowlers and we took advantage by laying 275 or more. It was a shrewd move which could again pay off.

England made 316 for eight there in 2014 and beat Australia. In the four matches at the Waca in the domestic one-day competition in 2012-13 the first-innings scores were: 307-219-248-281. Add those to the mix and we have an average of 240.

Match odds 
This is a battle between the bowlers. A shootout on Perth's lightning Waca strip. Who will be the fastest gunslingers in the west? The odds categorically say it will be Australia, who are as short as 1.4740/85. England are 3.185/40. We cannot agree that the gulf is justified when the pitch will have the biggest say of all.

England have an advantage insofar that they played on it recently and won. They will be more aware of the variable bounce. But ultimately the game is a clash of two contrasting bowling styles.

England have officially the most fearsome new-ball attack in the world. Before beating India England had a bowling average of 26.94 in the first ten overs since 2013. It was comfortably the best of any top eight side and Australia didn't even come close. This is why we have consistently said that with two new balls in the World Cup, England are a threat.

Australia's skill is their death bowling. The average number of runs they have conceded in the last 10 overs during the last 12 months is 58.5. That is incredible.

Arguably taking wickets first up will be more important at the Waca and more likely. So that gives England the edge. In short, we think England should be about 2.56/4 here. They have lost twice to Australia this series but they are more than capable of springing a shock and a back-to-lay looks almost guaranteed if they bowl first.

Australia have a funny habit of losing their next match after their end-of-season awards ceremony, the Allan Border Medal. That was staged this week and they have only beaten one side since 2005 in the game that immediately follows. Indeed, they lost to England at Perth in that situation last year.

Top Australia runscorer 
Given England's danger with the new ball it would make sense to look lower down the order for runs. George Bailey at 7.413/2 fits the bill. He has an average of 77 in the last five years at the Waca and if the top order get blown away he could ride to the rescue. Others on the radar are Glenn Maxwell at 7.06/1, Brad Haddin at 14.013/1 and James Faulkner at 18.017/1.

Top England runscorer
Buttler has consecutive half-centuries at the Waca and he also has consecutive match-winning innings there. He is 8.07/1. Again we might prefer to look lower down the order given England's collapse against India. Bopara is 7.06/1 and Chris Woakes 26.025/1.

Recommended Bet
Lay team batting first for 275 or more 2.01/1

Already advised
Australia to win series 1.910/11

Ed Hawkins P/L

2015: +£11.40

2014: +325.10 (ROI 28.5%)

2013: +250.80 (ROI 25%)

To £10 level stakes, based only on available prices

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