Ed Hawkins previews the third T20 from Trinidad on Saturday with two poor batting sides providing a trading chance on a slow wicket
"One of our golden rules is to never get with Pakistan when odds on. This is a game to trade, just as the last two were"
Trade West Indies to 1.51/2
West Indies v Pakistan
Saturday 1 April 17.30
TV: live on Sky Sports Mix
So far in this series West Indies have failed to bat first with any brains and they have failed to chase a moderate target. The latest flop came in game two in Trinidad when they couldn't not get past 132.
They were cruising for much of the match. Samuel Badree and Sunil Narine combined to strangle Pakistan, taking two and three wickets respectively. That is as you would expect as the pair are a formidable in this format.
And it was all going swimmingly in the chase when they were 60 for one. But the inevitable collapse came and they were soon 81 for six. They fell three runs short with spinner Shadab Khan again proving to be the match winner.
They have few options to improve. One possible change is Rovman Powell losing his place to Jason Mohammed.
Shadab's four wickets for 14 was the only Pakistan performance to write home about. Amazing then that they managed to win the game.
Shoaib Malik had earlier top scored with 28 while Wahab Riaz's late cameo of 24 from just 10 balls proved to be match winning.
Pakistan could keep the same XI but with West Indies looking dreadful against spin they are keen to get an extra slow bowler into play. That means Kamran Akmal could lose his opener slot to Mohammad Hafeez.
The latest T20 at Queens Park Oval was only the fourth played. But they have all been heavy going for batsmen. Pakistan's first dig total of 132 was just the latest low total. The previous three read: 121-105-159.
West Indies are 2.021/1 and Pakistan are 1.9620/21. It is surprising that Pakistan are not shorter than that considering Windies' pathetic performances so far. Indeed, it's now six consecutive victories for Pakistan over this lot since September 2016.
But one of our golden rules is to never get with Pakistan when odds-on. This is a game to trade, just as the last two were, and a slow wicket and two poor batting teams should provide plenty of flip flops in favouritism.
The hosts were mighty short in the chase and were even as low as 1.454/9 when needing 30 off the last three overs. So they are a reliable team to blow up.
Top West Indies runscorer
Marlon Samuels showed decent touch in game two with 44 from 25 balls. He is 10/3 with Sportsbook. He has little to beat. Evin Lewis and Chadwick Walton have done little while Kieron Pollard's batting performances have been on the slide for a while. Samuels is 6/1 to be top match runscorer.
Top Pakistan runscorer
Shoaib has top scored twice for Pakistan which has been bad news for our tips of Sarfaraz Ahmed at 8/1 and then 12/1. Shoaib is down to 4/1 for this one with Sarfaraz in to 9/1. Given the cut we can't advise getting with him this time although it would be sod's law that he came up trumps. Hafeez is 11/2 and Ahmed Shehzad is 7/2.
Trade West Indies to 1.51/2
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017.
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