Twenty20 World Cup / Ed Hawkins / 11 June 2009 /

Sri Lanka have been brilliant, Pakistan have been bad. It will take a turnaround in both teams' fortunes for there to be an upset at Lord's, says Ed Hawkins

Team news

Pakistan have called up Abdul Razzaq as a replacement for Yasir Arafat, who is out of the tournament with a hamstring injury. Razzaq, a hard-hitting batsman and bowler with decent pace, probably strengthens Pakistan but he faces a dash to get to London in time for start of the game.

Sri Lanka should be unchanged from their comfortable victory over West Indies, meaning no place for Nuwan Kulasekara or Farveez Maharoof. Isuru Udana and Angelo Mathews are keeping them out of the side.

Conditions

The sun should shine on Lord's on Friday, increasing the likelihood of runs. The first-innings scores we have seen on this ground so far have mostly been healthy: 162, 175 and 128. Two of the three matches have been won by the side batting first.

Match odds

Pakistan have won two of the three meetings against Sri Lanka which will give hope to backers at [2.48]. However, it is the here and now that counts and it is impossible not to feel very nervous indeed about following Younis Khan's side.

Not only are they hopeless in the field - catches went down against the Netherlands - but Younis is not fussed by the competition, claiming it is a bit of fun.

They have finally sorted out the balance of the side, though. Kamran Akmal at the top of the innings is a shrewd move while Sohail Tanvir's return is a bonus.

It is Tanvir, and pace partner Umar Gul, who are the key to this game. Pakistan must split Sri Lanka opening pair Sanath Jayasuriya and Tillakaratne Dilshan early otherwise they are in trouble. In the two wins over Sri Lanka, Jayasuriya was dismissed for eight and five.

Sri Lanka, who are [1.66], have artillery of their own and Ajantha Mendis has bamboozled Pakistan just as much as other batters around the world. Perhaps their greatest weapon is professionalism, though. Their fielding should give them a 20-run start and Pakistan must have one of their brilliant days to win.

Top batsman

In the six innings at Lord's, openers have top-scored in five of them which immediately makes Akmal and Salman Butt and Jayasuriya and Dilshan the hot prices. However, Shoaib Malik has outscored his team-mates in two of the three games against Sri Lanka and could be worth following again at around [5.00]. He looked comfortable on the HQ wicket against Netherlands

Featured market

Pakistan have hit eight sixes between them in two matches. Sri Lanka have hit the same. Surprised? The most sixes market probably will be and there might be some value in getting with Pakistan at inflated odds.

Ed Hawkins says: back Sri Lanka to beat Pakistan at [1.66]

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