T20 World Cup Betting: Pakistan v Netherlands

Twenty20 World Cup / Ed Hawkins / 08 June 2009 / 3

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Netherlands meet Pakistan at Lord's to decide which side progresses to the Super Eight stage. Ed Hawkins says Younis Khan's side look vulnerable to Dutch courage

Team news

It would be more than Dutch courage if Netherlands decided to change the XI which were so impressive against England. Foolishness more likely. They are expected to field the same team with any niggles having disappeared by three days of rest.

Pakistan would be well-advised to bring back Sohail Tanvir, the top wicket-taker in the 2008 IPL. He has been out of form but surely they need his awkward left-armers for a must-win game, not to mention his useful lower-order batting. He could replace Yasir Arafat, who required a runner in the defeat to England at The Oval on Sunday.

Conditions

Heavy rain is forecast for Lord's which makes a reduced-overs affair a very real possibility. The wicket is good for batting, however and England arguably should have made at least 20 more runs in the only first-innings of the tournament on the ground so far. Indeed the rain could be so heavy that the players do not make the field at all, meaning the Dutch progress.

Match odds

It has taken only one match but Pakistan have already reached the nadir of unbackable status when odds on - not an easy sentence for this correspondent to write considering they were considered well-equipped for success. Defeat will see them exit the tournament at the first hurdle.

At [1.14] they must not be risked by big hitters. That leaves us with Netherlands at [6.80] and the unsteady feeling of jumping on a bandwagon.

However, the play is to back and lay the Dutch because of the potential for reduced overs. The shorter the matches, the greater likelihood of a giantkilling. For example, it is easier for a minnow to chase eight an over for 10 overs than it is for 20.

This is not to argue that Netherlands will win - their victory over England was freakish and they may well be spent - but their odds could contract if Pakistan are again unprofessional.

At The Oval, Pakistan dropped four simple catches and their ground feeling was woeful. That allayed with acceleration with the bat which was akin to a Skoda driving through toffee and you have a recipe for a closer game than the odds suggest. Their first 50 came of 7.3 overs. Their next 50 came off a another 7.3. Pathetic.

Top batsman

In a shortened game, the hitters will be promoted up the order. That means betting.betfair's Ryan ten Doeschate could be value while for Pakistan the talented Misbah should bat higher than the No 7 position he filed against England. Both should be available at [5.00] or higher.

Featured market

With the weather such a key factor, punters need to be aware of runs-specific markets. Less overs means the value could lie with a lay of 200 or 225 runs or more.

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Zeeshan Ahmed | 08 June 2009

Good Article. Pakistan will perform well and take on Holland. Every day's not sunday, so Holland can expect a tight contest, because the pacemen and spinners will make Holland's going on tough.

Best of Luck Pakistan!
atiq raja | 08 June 2009

yes . my view is they have to give chance new talent muhammad amir to show the prformance he is rellay gold for pakistan
Waseem Sarwar | 09 June 2009

if its not rains then i m sure pak will trash Holland. Dutch, if rains occurs then you are safe otherwise some thing awkward and hard times are coming for u. pak will progress if rain......