Twenty20 World Cup / Alan Dudman / 06 June 2009 /

All stats, team sheets and form guides suggest this will be a walk in the park for tournament joint-favourites South Africa. But that's not to say there isn't betting value on subsidiary markets, says Alan Dudman.

Team News:

Scotland were plagued by problems in the run up to their first game in the tournament on Saturday against New Zealand. Veteran seamer John Blain had an argument with captain Gavin Hamilton - and there is no chance of reconciliation - so he is out of the equation. So too is fast bowler Dewald Nel. Although he is strictly South African, the quickie broke a finger and he was ruled out for six weeks, and the Saltires look fairly thin on the bowling front.

The Scots actually have a fair few South Africans in their line-up and are captained by former England international Gavin Hamilton - a real one Test wonder before an attack of the yips got the better of him. He is a solid batter, as are the likes of McCallum and Coetzer.

Hamilton has seen his side lose both warm-up games. Firstly to England where they didn't play too badly, but the loss to Holland was a fairly weak display.

Meanwhile South Africa have been storming during the warm-up games, and have had a quite beautiful preparation. Three wins from three against Ireland, Sri Lanka and Pakistan in the build-up has told us what we already know about Proteas - they are a class side with a ton of experience.

Captain Graeme Smith has stated his men are in peak shape due to the fact most of the team played in the recent IPL. The likes of Gibbs, de Villiers, the Morkels, van der Merwe, Boucher and Kallis all playing, has given them a massive edge on their rivals.

South Africa have experimented with two spinners in the side against Sri Lanka - and like to take the pace off the ball. However, with the rain maybe adding some juice into the Oval wicket - it is sure to suit the Morkels and raw quickie Wayne Parnell.

Conditions:

With this being the earlier game and rain forecast at the Oval, the toss will be as crucial as ever. However, it will have little impact on the result here as it is such a mismatch.

The Oval is normally a high scoring ground, with the two Twenty20 Internationals between England and the West Indies producing scores of 208, 193, 169 and 173.

South Africa are likely to bat first if they win the toss. A huge score would be expected, but it may be prudent not to get too carried away due to the weather forecast.

Match Odds:

South Africa are as low as [1.05] to win the match outright, which gives us virtually no room for leeway whatsoever. Even if Scotland use the humid conditions
to their advantage and bag a couple of quick unlikely wickets, the market is not going to overreact too drastically.

The value surely lies with the Springboks trading at [1.51] to win Group D, and around [2.52] to qualify for the final. It's their first match of the tournament, so they'll be looking to lay down a good marker and make sure the batters all get a decent look.

Scotland can be found at a whopping [15.00] to win the match outright. Holland might have succeeded against England (and they traded at [10.00 pre-match), but it is virtually impossible for lightning to strike again here. The Scots ought to be bigger, and the only play I can see during the game is if they take early wickets in humid, muggy conditions.

However the Scots took a thumping against New Zealand on Saturday so energy levels, not to mention morale, won't be as high as their fans (or indeed backers) would like.

Top Batsman:

The entire South African top order will be short enough looking at their respective team's highest run scorer market. Gibbs, Smith, Kallis and de Villiers all played in the IPL, and all look in good nick thus far in the warm-up games.

The value could side with having a couple of plays on the Top Scotland Bat market. Most of the names will be unfamiliar but they have a decent player in the shape of Kyle Coetzer. The Aberdeen-born batter has done well for Durham in recent seasons, and top-scored for them against New Zealand after also impressing in the warm-up matches.

Scotland's Navdeep Pooma is on the books of Warwickshire and is a stylish, wristy player and early impressions suggest there is a lot more to come from him as he's still only 23.

Featured Market:

South Africa dominate every single area, and value is harder to find than in most recent matches. The one play that is most interesting is the highest individual score market. I find it unlikely that the Proteas are going to fail in this area, and will be backing the over 68.5 runs at anything odds-against.

Recommendations:

Alan Dudman says: Back Kyle Coetzer in Top Scotland Batsman market

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