Twenty20 / Ed Hawkins / 10 November 2009 /

England may be one of the poorest T20 sides in world cricket but in the right conditions and at the right prices, we shouldn't completely write them off says Ed Hawkins.

One of the misconceptions about any form of sports betting is the belief that in order to part with your hard-earned, you have to convince yourself that the team you are backing is better than the one you are opposing.

It is a psychological comfort rug which cossets and cosies as you place your stake. But be warned: you are going to have to get your hands on a large and luxurious one to back England in their two T20 matches against South Africa.

It is a task which is surely beyond the most insecure of fantasists. England are inferior to South Africa, which is why the hosts are [1.61] for victory in the first of the two-game contest with Andrew Strauss' men [2.58].

But here's the rub. We do not need to convince ourselves that England are the better side to consider supporting them in one way or another. We merely need to expand the mind to come to the conclusion there is a possibility that events could transpire that make them a better bet than the market suggests.

It is a crucial tactic for T20 betting. To remind yourself of the format's appetite for devouring short-priced jollies, have a scan back to our section on the hows, whys and wherefores on Twenty20.

A decent case could be made not for an England victory in this series, but South Africa failing to win it. In others words, a lay of the hosts at [2.5] could be the way to go with England needing to win in either Johannesburg or Centurion to deny them.

It would be very easy to write off England just by looking at the form guides of the respective sides; South Africa have won twice as many games as the visitors. Despite that obvious gulf, England do have strengths which need to be recognised.

They are a useful outfit when they play on good batting wickets. Four of their last five victories have come on belting tracks which have given their strokemakers the confidence they crave to open their shoulders and hit through the line of the ball. Against Pakistan at The Oval, India at Lord's and New Zealand at Christchurch and Auckland, England's batsmen were thrilling.

The good news is that Jo'burg and Centurion are good batting tracks. In T20 internationals at The Wanderers the average run rate is a healthy eight runs while the number was the same at SuperSport Park in the 11 Indian Premier League games earlier this year.

It may not escape your attention that England batted first in all four of those matches. It is important that they do so again against South Africa if they are to chalk up a victory.

You see England, surprisingly, have a better run rate than the mighty South Africans when it comes to batting first. They average eight runs per over to South Africa's 7.74. It may not look much of a gap but it is a statistic which will keep layers of South Africa interested.

There is a problem. There always is with England. What if they have to bat second? You'll be out in the cold.

On the eight occasions that England have had to chase down a target, they have frozen solid with panic, unable to swing those arms like when the pressure valve is released in a first innings. They have won only twice.

Such a record is an impediment to getting against the South Africans but it does not make a lay a bad bet. A coin toss is a 50-50 event. All you have to hope is that the coin comes down in their favour. And they remember to bat, of course.

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