Stuart Broad's men are drinking in the last chance saloon and the England captain will do himself an enormous favour if he calls the toss right, says Michael Vaughan, as he looks at today's clash between England and New Zealand
"At 5.04/1 Morgan is a super price given his mastery of the short game."
It's do or die for England today but, being optimistic, the good news is that we usually do alright in these high-pressure matches.
However, I think the toss is going to be ultra important today. Get it wrong and we'll be up against it, but get it right and half the battle is won. My betting advice today is simple - back whoever calls the toss right because being able to choose whether you bat or bowl first is going to be massive
I place such importance in the toss because, in truth, I can't see much between these two outfits.
England, of course, are the current champions but they've looked like a jigsaw with a piece missing throughout the tournament. We've had our moments but just haven't clicked as a unit. I suspect there may be changes with Danny Briggs possibly coming in at the expense of Jade Dernbach.
As ever, New Zealand have been tough, gritty and competitive - witness that unbelievable defeat against Sri Lanka. Make no mistake, they are dangerous but, while their attack is smart it doesn't contain much mystery.
Brendon McCullum is a worry but Steven Finn is the type of bowler who can have success against him if he gets the ball nipping back in to the stumps.
The Betfair market leans towards England here, but I think there's little to choose between the two and I really make it 50/50. That would suggest the Kiwis are the value play but, again, I would wait for the toss before making a match odds play.
One bet I will be having - and I make no apologies for putting it up again - is Eoin Morgan to top score for England. At 5.04/1 he is a super price given his mastery of the short game.