Hawk Eye on India v New Zealand Third T20: Kane able to cop for top-bat

Williamson is worth following
Williamson is worth following
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Ed Hawkins notched a top-bat winner last time out with his stats specials and he has another wager of the same ilk for the final match of the series on Tuesday

"Williamson has not top scored in his previous three innings so either this knock or next time out might represent optimal betting time on him for this market"

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K Williamson top NZ runscorer 11/4

We are expecting the wicket for this contest to be full of runs. Here's Kerala Cricket Association secretary Jayesh George with a pitch report.

"It is going to be a good batting wicket with a quick outfield. BCCI curator K Sriram from Karnataka is coordinating and helping us put the final touches. They wanted to see how the newly-laid wicket behaves so we held a practice match three-four days back. It turned out to be a high-scoring one. They are very happy with the ground. I would say it is a 'win toss, bat first' wicket."

George's views are welcome because there has never been an international T20 played there, nor an IPL match. That leaves punters in the dark.

What would back up George's view is the size of the boundaries at Greenfield Stadium. With football also played there, it is not the biggest. The boundaries are believed to be 65 metres. The minimum, according to the ICC, is 59 so we could see some big hits.

So we are quite keen to get on the side of overs with the sixes markets. The exchange has a market for over 9.5 sixes but it is yet to mature with cash.

For the record, the average number of sixes per game in the last two years in India is 9.6. So there should be value here with the ropes closer in.

Sportsbook go 17/2 that a century is scored in the first innings. It is tempting...until you crunch the numbers. There have been only three centuries in international T20 under the study criteria (48 matches) in all innings. That suggest we should be looking at significantly bigger odds, particularly as one of those tons came last time out by the blade of Colin Munro.

A first-innings 50 is rated at 3/10. The real odds are more like 5/7 with 28 fifties recorded in 47 first-innings.

As for first-innings runs the average in India in the last two years is 145. The markets will expect that to be busted considerably and you're only likely to see decent funds available on the exchange for trading at around 165 runs or more.

We would be confident of that getting busted but it just goes to show how the cold, hard numbers would suggest that it is not a wise bet.

Indeed, there has to be caution. The weather forecast is not good. There is a 40 per cent chance of rain in the few hours leading up to the match and then a 50 per cent chance just as it is expected to begin. So we are wary of overs being reduced.

Kane's time is now

Punters are getting almost a point in their favour on Kane Williamson top-scoring at 11/4 with Sportsbook. Statistically he is notching just shy of 35 per cent of the time. So will his time come in the finale?

We hope so. He is, as they say, 'due' just like Virat Kohli was in Rajkot when we advised a wager on him at the same price. Williamson has not top scored in his previous three innings so either this knock or next time out might represent optimal betting time on him for this market.

The big question about Williamson is this: is he in decent nick? His strike rate of 121 suggests he is seeing the ball reasonably well. But then he has hit only three fours in two innings.

This is the problem with T20. It is often impossible to tell whether a guy is in form or not. After all, Williamson has only faced 33 balls. As a sample study that is close to irrelevant. So we're left to stick with reputation and the old maxim: form is temporary, class is permanent.

Colin Munro is rated as likely to top score as his skipper. Fair? Well, he comes into the game off the back of a rapid century. But until Munro shows the consistency of Williamson in copping in this market, then it is not justified.

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Read Ed's match preview here

Hawk-Eye P-L

Points staked: 17
Points p-l: +7.63
To 1pt level stakes

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