Ed Hawkins previews the decider with the series tied at 1-1 and expects another decent showing from the tourists at Karyavattom on Tuesday...
"We have been consistent in our view that the hosts do not represent value and that hasn’t changed"
Back New Zealand at [2.94] (1pt)
India v New Zealand
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India were well beaten in game two in Rajkot to set up the decider. They might need to tweak their XI to avoid a surprise home series loss.
It seems strange that they insistent on being a batsman short. Or, to put it another way, playing three out-and-out pacers. They are not utilising all-rounder Hardik Pandya correctly.
Hardik allows them to play the extra batter, crucial in this India side at the moment considering Bhuv Kumar is batting at No 8. Kumar is a decent player but he should not be so high in this format. You need genuine match-winners with the bat there.
They can lengthen their batting by dropping the expensive Mohammed Siraj and picking one from Dinesh Karthik, Manish Pandey or KL Rahul. They would also have to give Hardik a full quota of overs. So far he has only bowled two in the series.
New Zealand showed why they are the No 1 side world with a 40-run win. Their batting fired and then their bowlers kept their nerve.
Colin Munro was the star. His 109 from just 58 balls was a coming of age moment for his international career and he should push on to really establish himself. Martin Guptill finding some form was handy, too.
There was still work to be done, however, after posting 196. Trent Boult, often lethal, removed both openers to put them firmly in control.
But when Virat Kohli was going well there was some pressure. So it was to their credit that they kept their discipline - and again when MS Dhoni started swinging - to ensure a cosy win.
For the finale they must decide whether Adam Milne or Tim Southee partner Boult. Southee might just get the nod to return because of his superior batting.
This is the first international match at the Greenfield Stadium, a multi-purpose venue which also hosts football. The wicket is newly-laid and the only information about how it will play came from a Kerala Cricket Association official who said a practice match a few days ago was high-scoring. At 64 metres, the boundaries are short.
India are currently [1.51], which is the biggest so far, with New Zealand [2.92]. We have been consistent in our view that the hosts do not represent value and that hasn't changed.
Still, we learnt a lesson from game two. We were too cautious about getting with New Zealand having lost a little bit of faith - their fielding was poor and skip Kane Williamson questioned their mindset - so we caveated our wager with a toss bias.
The lesson is that a wrong price is a wrong price even before the flip and we were guilty of trying to be too clever. So there is nothing wrong with getting with the Kiwis straight away here. Be advised, though, that New Zealand will probably drift if they have to bat second.
That might not be a bad thing. There is rain around and it could disrupt the side batting first with a 50 per cent chance of rain predicted bang on ball one.
Top India runscorer
Kohli copped right on time for us last time out and for this one he will go off at 12/5 with Sportsbook. Openers Rohit Sharma and Shikhar Dhawan are 5/2 and 10/3 respectively and we have to nod our heads to them on an expected good wicket with the possibility of reduced overs.
Back New Zealand at [2.94] (1pt)
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l