Hawk Eye - India v New Zealand First T20: Kiwis have more muscle

Williamson is value for top bat honours
Williamson is value for top bat honours

Ed Hawkins has got his spreadsheet out again to point you in the value direction for the side markets for the contest from Delhi on Wednesday

"Only three times have New Zealand hit fewer than five sixes. Seven times they have hit seven or more"

Recommended Bet
New Zealand most sixes 6/4 Sportsbook

It would stand to reason the world No 1 T20 team would hit more sixes than the team ranked No 5, right? After all, winning T20 matches is all about scoring the maximum amount of runs in the shortest amount of time.

Fret not. This is not a trick question. Of course, the best teams do hit more sixes. Well, in this instance anyway. New Zealand are that No 1 team. India are that No 5 team. The Kiwis routinely show more muscle.

During their run to top spot, New Zealand have played 14 matches in the last two years. In that time they have struck 91 sixes, an average of 6.5 per match. Only three times have they hit fewer than five. Seven times they have hit seven or more. Overall, New Zealand have recorded more than half the number of sixes than India have.

In the last two years at home, India have averaged 3.6 per match. They hit a high of 12 against England in Bengaluru at the start of the year and three times have they managed only one - incidentally, one of those innings came against New Zealand in Nagpur last year. In ten innings they have notched four or less.

So, who do you want to bet for most sixes in the first T20? New Zealand. Naturally. Do you want to do it at odds-against? You bet. India are favourites on this market at 8/11 with Sportsbook. So we have to smash into the 6.4 available about the Kiwis.

Recommended Bet
New Zealand most sixes 6/4 Sportsbook

Boult from the blue

Mitchell Santner is New Zealand's highest-ranked bowler in T20 according to the ICC. And although those ratings are useful to find out who the movers and shakers are, they're not much cop when trying to decipher a top bowler bet.

Santner, you could be forgiven for thinking, might rate value at 3/1 to take more wickets than his team-mates. But his real odds - the number of times betting him would actually result in a profit - are 6/1. Shudder.

The spinner is joint jolly with Trent Boult? So how does the pacer fare? Much better, thankfully. He is around the 9/5 area so if you go with him at 3/1 you're not only in the value zone, but mayor of it. A word, too, for Adam Milne. He's about 5/2 stats-wise so the 4/1 is a perfectly acceptable wager. Tim Southee gets a 7/2 quote but wins as often as Santner.

Kane able

The top New Zealand runscorer market is confusing us. Kane Williamson is their Mr Reliable. Ordinarily. But not when all T20 internationals are taken into account.

Their go-to man is, in fact, Martin Guptill who cops 35 per cent of the time. Williamson comes in at just under 35. Both should be around the 9/5 mark for honours, then. Williamson is 5/2 but Guptill would have to be considered the value at 10/3.

But. And it's a big but, Guptill has been in awful form on the tour of India so far. Williamson has just found his with a half-century in the final ODI. So should that swing it back his way? Perhaps it doesn't matter because, on price, Williamson is still underrated.

Recommended Bet
K Williamson top NZ runscorer 5/2 Sportsbook

Hawk-Eye P-L

Points staked: 14
Points p-l: +6.88
To 1pt level stakes

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