Tour de France Stage 9 Tips: Guerreiro can go to war for breakaway

Jack Houghton
09 July 2022
3:00 min read

As the hills rise in the distance, this could be a day for the breakaway

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This is likely to go to a breakaway, writes Jack Houghton, although he acknowledges that the peloton hasn't been very generous so far

"Guerreiro won a similar stage in the 2020 Giro d'Italia and showed his form when winning a warm-up one-day race up Mont Ventoux..."

1 pt Back Ruben Guerreiro at 20.019/1

What's the stage like?

We reach the Alps on this 193km stage that packs in four categorised climbs. The last two are the most interesting, both category ones, including the finish up to Chatel.

After riders reach that final summit, the road dips down briefly before kicking up again for the last 4km. There's nothing especially steep today, but with an attritional week in their legs, this will not be easy.

Breakaway specialists will be eyeing up this stage, but the peloton hasn't been in a particularly giving mood so far in this Tour.

Who are the favourites?

Given that Tadej Pogacar (8.07/1) seems to have adopted the strategy of trying to win every stage at this year's Tour, it's no surprise to see him towards the front of the market, even if it would seem strategically unwise for him to overly commit when more significant stages are around the corner.

He heads the market alongside Lennard Kamna (8.07/1), who came so close to breakaway glory on Stage 7 and will undoubtedly try again on a hilly stage to come. Those odds aren't especially generous, though, and the value lies elsewhere.

Who are the most likely outsiders?

If backing a General Classification contender, Jonas Vingegaard (30.029/1) is arguably the better bet at the odds than Pogacar. He showed he has the potential to go toe-to-toe with the Slovenian on Stage 7, but will likely wait until the higher mountains to make a decisive move.

A case can be made for a host of other riders who could profit from a breakaway, but a speculative bet on Ruben Guerreiro (20.019/1) is the call. He won a similar stage in the 2020 Giro d'Italia and showed his form when winning a warm-up one-day race up Mont Ventoux before this Tour.

What effect will it have on the overall markets?

It is the first day in the Alps, so you would expect some time gaps between the Overall Market contenders, but these ascents are fairly tame by comparison with what is to come, so it's likely those gaps will be small.

*Odds correct at the time of writing

Jack Houghton's Cycling Tips 2022 P&L:
Staked: 54.0 Returned: 103.9 P/L: +49.9