Tour de France Stage 19 Tips: Kristoff can surprise wilting rivals

Jack Houghton
21 July 2022
3:00 min read

Alexander Kristoff can roll back the clock and surprise younger rivals

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The tricky thing is knowing which sprinters have anything left, writes Jack Houghton, who fancies old-timer Kristoff to shock

"Alexander Kristoff (60.059/1) may not win as regularly these days, but he has had three victories this season..."

1 pt Back Alexander Kristoff at 60.059/1

What's the stage like?

Largely flat as the Tour de France darts North, heading towards Paris on this 188km transitional day.

There are a few rolling hills towards the end, including a couple of category four climbs, and the open countryside might make crosswinds a possibility. But otherwise, this should be an uncomplicated day that a sprinter wins.

The challenge for punters here is figuring out which sprinters will have anything left after the punishment of the mountains has laden them all with fatigue.

Who are the favourites?

Jasper Philipsen (4.216/5) tops the market. His form on Stage 15 suggests he has a claim, and he has handled the mountains better than many of his rivals, but those odds look short on a stage where past form might be largely meaningless.

Even worse value, though, are the odds of Fabio Jacobsen (6.25/1). He has had a torrid time in the mountains, often being perilously close to cut-off times, looking more like an injured soldier returning from the front line than the world's best sprinter.

Wout Van Aert (7.06/1) also has obvious claims, with him certainly being the most consistent sprinter in the Tour, but surely his exertions as freakish support rider to Jonas Vingegaard will have dented Van Aert's condition, and he might well back off Stage 19 in order to recover in time for Paris.

Who are the most likely outsiders?

A better approach, then, is to go for a longer-priced rider who can capitalise on the wounded condition of their competitors.

Mads Pedersen (9.08/1), Dylan Groenewegen (10.09/1) and Caleb Ewan (11.010/1) all have a chance. Of the three, Pedersen has shown the most recent form of interest with his win on Stage 13.

Preference, though, is for the huge odds of Alexander Kristoff (60.059/1). He may not win as regularly these days, but he has had three victories this season, and showed good sprinting from against the best here on Stage 4. He seems to have managed recent mountain stages with relative ease and can cause a shock by winning this.