Tour de France Stage 17 Tips: Pogacar is running out of chances

Jack Houghton
19 July 2022
3:00 min read

Nairo Quintana is coming into form when the stages suit him best

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If Pogacar is going to win the Tour de France, writes Jack Houghton, he'll have to take every opportunity, including winning Stage 17...

""Nairo Quitana (22.021/1) looks to be peaking at the right time, and certainly seems stronger than Geraint Thomas (40.039/1)..."

1 pt Back Nairo Quintana at 22.021/1

What's the stage like?

Short and explosive. At just 129km, and with four testing categorised climbs all in the last half of the stage, it is likely we will see riders prepare to attack much earlier than they otherwise would, especially with so much still up for stakes in the General Classification.

The final climb to the summit finish at Peyragudes airport is the most testing, with the final part hitting 13% gradients.

With time bonuses up for grabs, expect the stage win to go the way of a Yellow Jersey contender.

Who are the favourites?

Tadej Pogacar (5.04/1) - the main but ultimately unsuccessful animator on Stage 16 - is the obvious favourite. He has to be aggressive if he is to bring back enough time on Jonas Vingegaard (6.611/2) to make the Yellow Jersey a realistic prospect. And Pogacar is likely value at the odds.

Whilst it's an open question as to whether he can take significant time on his Danish rival, the evidence from the Tour so far is that he is at least the better rider in a hill sprint to the line.

Vingegaard, meanwhile, represents poor value simply because there is little motivation for him when it comes to winning the stage. If the opportunity presents itself, he will no doubt take it, but otherwise expect him to stick defensively on Pogacar's wheel.

Who are the most likely outsiders?

A case can be made for Thibaut Pinot (14.013/1), but that case might be based more on expectation, as opposed to recent form.

Nairo Quitana (22.021/1), on the other hand, looks to be peaking at the right time, and certainly seems stronger than Geraint Thomas (40.039/1), who might still have more to give in this year's Tour, but is increasingly looking like a rider happy to cling on to third in the General Classification.

What effect will it have on the overall markets?

Maybe nothing, maybe everything. Pogacar came across as frustrated in his post-Stage 16 interviews, seemingly at a loss as to what might help him unseat Vingegaard. He'll no doubt try again here, though, and the Yellow Jersey competition is far from over.

*Odds correct at the time of writing

Jack Houghton's Cycling Tips 2022 P&L:
Staked: 64.5 Returned: 120.9 P/L: +56.4