Tour de France Stage 16 Tips: Pidcock and Mohoric to descend to victory

Jack Houghton
18 July 2022
4:00 min read

Geraint Thomas still has chances as the Tour moves into the decisive third week

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Tadej Pogacar might go for this, writes Jack Houghton, but the best bets lie with specialist descenders like Pidcock

"Pidcock has already demonstrated that he descends better than anyone in the peloton..."

1 pt Back Tom Pidcock at 29.028/1

What's the stage like?

The Tour de France hits the Pyrenees in its third week, where all is likely to be decided.

This stage is on the mellow side. 179km, with four categorised climbs, with the interest provided by two, category one climbs in the last 60km.

The final climb, the Mur de Peguere, is harder than it looks on paper, though, with the last 3km to the summit featuring gradients approaching 18%. After that comes a long and technical descent into Foix.

Expect the best descenders to attack on that final climb.

Who are the favourites?

Tadej Pogacar (7.5013/2) will likely ride aggressively, seeking a stage win and the bonus seconds that come with it. He clearly has the explosivity to put distance into rivals on that final climb - and is a strong descender - but whether those odds are value when everyone knows what he will do... it's best to look elsewhere.

Thibaut Pinot (17.016/1) is high in several lists, but he descends according to geological timespans and has already had a few unsuccessful attempts in this year's Tour. It's hard to see him winning.

Damiano Caruso (17.016/1) and Dani Martinez (17.016/1) are also fancied. Caruso has tended to have his best days in breakaways with summit finishes, however, and much the same can be said about Martinez.

Who are the most likely outsiders?

The lack of a summit finish makes this a much more open stage, and the best value likely lies in supporting Tom Pidcock (29.028/1) and Matej Mohoric (44.043/1).

Pidcock has already demonstrated on Stage 12 that he descends better than anyone in the peloton, and Mohoric showed similar derring-do with his race-winning move at Milan San Remo.

What effect will it have on the overall markets?

Every day is significant now, and Stage 16 will likely see further clarification among the General Classification contenders. Pre-race tips Jonas Vingegaard and Geraint Thomas still look in strong positions, and Pogacar can obviously not be discounted.

*Odds correct at the time of writing

Jack Houghton's Cycling Tips 2022 P&L:
Staked: 62.5 Returned: 120.9 P/L: +58.4