The main contenders should be content to let a breakaway have this, writes Jack Houghton, who thinks Kamna can repeat success on summit finish
"Kamna won a stage in the 2020 Dauphine on this finish and, given his near miss on Stage 7, we know he is in good form..."
1 pt Back Lennard Kamna at 8.88/1
What's the stage like?
A short, 148km stage in the Alps, although not an especially testing one. With only four significant climbs, and none above a category two, this will not be a suffer fest.
Still, the finish up to Megeve gets more difficult in the closing kilometres and will encourage an aggressive breakaway rider or two to go for glory.
Who are the favourites?
It's no surprise to see Lennard Kamna (8.88/1) heading the market. He won a stage in the 2020 Dauphine on this finish and, given his near miss on Stage 7, we know he is in good form. Already approaching nine minutes down in the General Classification, the peloton won't worry too much about him going up the road and, on the back of a rest day, might welcome an easier day to get their legs back into riding before the tests to come.
That will all depend on the whims of Tadej Pogacar (11.010/1), though, who could almost certainly win this stage if he wanted to. We likely have to assume he won't target this day - given its relative ease there is little to be gained from being too aggressive.
Who are the most likely outsiders?
Wout Van Aert (16.015/1) is prominent in some lists and, given his victory on Mont Ventoux in the 2021 Tour de France, he cannot be discounted, but his odds aren't especially generous considering how fatigued he must be.
Jonas Vingegaard (60.059/1) and Geraint Thomas (260.0259/1) are both massive odds considering they don't have much to find with Pogocar, but on balance, this is likely a stage to keep stakes small and side with the breakaway.
What effect will it have on the overall markets?
There will be gaps in the General Classification, and contenders will need to be alert to this on what will likely be a fast and attritional final few kilometres that will feel like a mountain time trial.
*Odds correct at the time of writing