Tour De France

Tour de France 2023 Stage 21: Back Alexander Kristoff @ 39/1 to repeat consistency

Alexander Kristoff at Tour de France
Alexander Kristoff is consistent in Paris and can cause a surprise

On a day of staged photos and tourist ride-bys, writes Jack Houghton, the attention will eventually turn to the sprinters...

  • Jasper Philipsen (1.758/11) will be hard to beat

  • The other possible contenders all look exhausted or ill-suited

  • Alexander Kristoff (40.039/1) has been consistent here and could surprise

What's the stage like?

A 115km procession into Paris, before the eight passes of the Champs-Elysees and the most prestigious sprint in the cycling calendar.

The Tour is no stranger to being a tourist board advertising platform, and this stage seems designed to promote the 2024 Paris Olympics, with various sporting venues visited as winning riders sip champagne and ensure the press get the photos they need.

There will be a breakaway, but it won't win.

Who are the favourites?

Jasper Philipsen (1.758/11), winner of four stages early in the Tour, and unfortunate not to pick up further wins on Stage 18 and Stage 19, should get this. Very few sprinters of note have survived this far, and those that have, look exhausted. Philipsen, meanwhile, able to comfortably navigate mountain stages within the time limit, still looks relatively fresh.

Who are the most likely outsiders?

A more pertinent question might be: which other sprinters are left?

Dylan Groenewegen (7.06/1) managed a second-place finish on Stage 11, but has never looked like being able to get the better of Philipsen. It's hard to recommend him at the odds.

Likewise, Mads Pedersen (7.006/1). He seems to have survived the brutality of the Tour better than most, but would likely need a harder finish than this to challenge Philipsen.

As for the rest, headed by the likes of Sam Welsford (25.024/1), they would need something disastrous to befall the more-favoured riders to see any of them win.

One exception, and a speculative recommendation at big odds, is Alexander Kristoff (40.039/1). He's a previous winner in Paris and is superbly consistent on the Champs-Elysees, usually being among the first few across the line.

Back Alexander Kristoff @ 40.039/1 for Stage 21

Bet now

How will it affect the overall markets?

It won't. The jerseys are all decided and this stage is about honouring the winners, before attention turns to the curtain call of the final sprint.

*Odds correct at the time of writing

Recommended bets

Jack Houghton's Cycling Tips 2022-23 P&L:

Staked: 127

Returned: 148.9

P/L: +21.9


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