Tour De France

Tour de France 2023 Stage 19: Back Pedersen @ 10/1 on hard sprinting stage

Mads Pedersen at Tour de France
Mads Pedersen enjoys a tough sprint stage and can win here

An in-between stage, writes Jack Houghton, that will interest breakaway and sprinter alike...

  • Jasper Philipsen (8.07/1) will win if arriving at finish in contention

  • Better bet is Mads Pedersen (11.010/1) who will suit stage

  • Several breakaway contenders stand a chance

What's the stage like?

173km of rolling hills. Nothing especially long or steep, but the peloton is on the up or down for most of the day.

It's one of those stages where breakaway hopefuls and sprint teams will equally fancy a tilt, but given how exhausted the latter looked on the debacle of Stage 18, it might be best to assume this another day for a breakaway win.

If it does end in a bunch finish, riders face an 8km long straight, that kicks up slightly towards the line.

Who are the favourites?

Jasper Philipsen (8.07/1) is favourite again, but as his odds suggest, this will not be straightforward. If his team is able to deliver him at the sharp end, he has shown repeatedly his superiority, but this stage is difficult enough to cast doubt on him getting there.

Who are the most likely outsiders?

Philipsen's teammate, Mathieu van der Poel (10.09/1), is more than capable of treating this like a one-day race and winning, but his form has been lacklustre in this Tour, and with unclear team priorities I would want bigger odds before supporting him.

Mads Pedersen (11.010/1), meanwhile, is more attractive. He excels on these more difficult sprint days, as he showed on Stage 8, and his presence at the top end on Stage 16 and Stage 18 shows he has retained his form into this third week.

Back Mads Pedersen @ 11.010/1 for Stage 19

Bet now

If a breakaway does win, Matej Mohoric (14.013/1), Magnus Cort Nielsen (15.014/1) and Soren Kragh Andersen (17.016/1) are the most likely to take the spoils.

How will it affect the overall markets?

With the main markets now all-but settled, it's another quiet day, before the Mountains Classification is clarified on Stage 20.

*Odds correct at the time of writing

Recommended bets

Jack Houghton's Cycling Tips 2022-23 P&L:

Staked: 120

Returned: 148.9

P/L: +28.9


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