Tour De France

Tour de France 2023 Stage 15: Back Ben O'Connor @ 69/1 to repeat 2021 win

Ben O'Connor at Tour de France
Ben O'Connor will relish stage if breakaway allowed away

Another brutal day of climbing to end an attritional week, writes Jack Houghton, where a breakaway might be allowed to go

  • The summit finish to Saint-Gervais will allow a straight fight between the favourites

  • Tadej Pogacar (4.77/2) looks to have the advantage over Jonas Vingegaard (10.09/1)

  • Exhaustion might do it for any breakaway hopefuls bar Ben O'Connor (70.069/1)


What's the stage like?

179km with five categorised climbs concertinaed into the second half. Three of those are category one climbs, including the summit finish up to the ski resort of Saint-Gervais Mont-Blanc.

Looking at average gradients, none of the climbs look especially testing, but those averages hide some steeper sections that rise to 13% and will prove crucial, especially on the last two climbs of the day.

Who are the favourites?

I'm struggling to find an original way to write this. So I won't try to find one. It's Tadej Pogacar (4.77/2) and Jonas Vingegaard (10.09/1).

On the dramatic Stage 14, Pogacar seemed slightly stronger (it was only a tactical error that meant he ended up losing time on the stage overall) and, with this summit finish, it should come down to another shoot-out between the two. Unless, of course, their teams are so exhausted from recent days that they allow - on this longer stage - a breakaway to have its day.

Back Tadej Pogacar @ 4.77/2 for Stage 15

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Who are the most likely outsiders?

In a breakaway scenario, a whole host of riders become viable contenders, including Michael Woods (12.011/1), Giulio Ciccone (14.013/1), Felix Gall (21.020/1), David Gaudu (30.029/1) pre-tour tip Mattias Skjelmose (30.029/1), and Thibaut Pinot (40.039/1).

All of them have looked spent in recent days, though, and preference is for Ben O'Connor (70.069/1), who was a close third on Stage 10, and who won a not dissimilar stage at the Tour in 2021 from a solo breakaway. He's clearly in form, and it makes sense to split a bet between him and Pogacar.

Back Ben O'Connor @ 70.069/1 for Stage 15

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How will it affect the overall markets?

Another crucial day for the General Classification.

And Neilson Powless may well now give up on his Mountains Classifications aspirations, given Pogacar or Vingegaard will likely win the Polka-dot jersey by default.

*Odds correct at the time of writing

Recommended bets

Jack Houghton's Cycling Tips 2022-23 P&L:

Staked: 108

Returned: 148.9

P/L: +40.9

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