Tour De France

Tour de France 2023 Stage 11: Back Ewan @ 14.0 with saver on Philipsen

Caleb Ewan at Tour de France

It would be hard to design a course more suited to out-and-out sprinters, writes Jack Houghton

  • Jasper Philipsen (2.206/5) is hard to oppose

  • Caleb Ewan (14.013/1) has got closest

  • The other usual suspects will not like this stage profile


What's the stage like?

180km, with three, inconsequential categorised-climbs on route.

A stage for the sprinters, who will be greeted at the end by a pan-flat and straight finish: there's a mild kink just inside 2km to go, otherwise it couldn't be more straightforward.

Who are the favourites?

With the departure of Mark Cavendish, it is now hard to make much of a case for any sprinter aside from Jasper Philipsen (2.206/5) who, providing he doesn't meet any calamity, should be able to win this.

Back Jasper Philipsen @ 2.206/5 for Stage 11

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Of most note, perhaps, is the relative ease at which Philipsen has navigated the harder climbing stages of the last few days. He finished more than 20 minutes ahead of many of them, for example, on Stage 10, and will likely be fresher than his rivals, as well as better.

Who are the most likely outsiders?

Dylan Groenewegen (9.08/1) and Fabio Jakobsen (14.013/1) will fancy their chances on this parcours, but they've had little answer to Philipsen so far, and it's hard to make a convincing case that anything can change here.

Wout van Aert (13.012/1) and Mads Pedersen (15.014/1) have looked more dangerous, but this stage will not play to their strengths; they would likely need something harder to claim the stage win.

Caleb Ewan (14.013/1), meanwhile, ran Philipsen close on Stage 4, and is therefore worth an interest.

2-points Back Caleb Ewan @ 14.013/1 for Stage 11

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How will it affect the overall markets?

A few points to sweep up for the Mountains Classification hopefuls, but otherwise this is a day for the Green Jersey.

General Classification contenders will ride prominently to stay out of trouble, but it's unlikely there will be any Yellow Jersey market changes by stage-end.

*Odds correct at the time of writing

Recommended bets

Jack Houghton's Cycling Tips 2022-23 P&L:

Staked: 96.5

Returned: 142.5

P/L: +46.0

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