Tour De France / Richard Douglas / 16 January 2009 /

The seven-time Tour de France winner polarises the sport like almost no other cyclist, so there's huge intrigue surrounding his return to cycling in the Tour Down Under. Richard Douglas reports...

Let's start with the mother of all sporting understatements - Lance Armstrong is one determined bugger.

He won a truly heroic battle against a highly aggressive cancer before amassing a stupefying seven straight wins in the Tour de France.

He has entirely eclipsed the sport of cycling and has become a beacon for human hope and defiance against incredible odds. The name of his charity - Livestrong - pretty much says it all.

And now, at 37, he is making a comeback.

Earlier this week, Armstrong arrived in Australia to take part in his first professional event in four years. He is a competitive [6.4] to win the Tour Down Under. But if you believe the Texan himself, lay the living daylights out of Armstrong at [7.2].

"I think it would be unrealistic to expect a victory," he said on Monday.

"The race has gotten harder and harder over the years. I hope to be in the mix [but] I could be completely wrong."

This is merely the overture however. The Giro d'Italia will be the second movement and the Tour de France is the inevitable crescendo.

Currently the Betfair market places him at [1.31] to be part of the Grand Start on July 4 in Monaco and [2.6] to miss it. Given that Armstrong's motivation is not just sporting achievement but promotion for his crusading charity, it would be an uncharacteristic climbdown if he were to make a U-turn.

However, Armstrong has become a complicated figure in a troubled sport. Depending on your standpoint, he is either brilliant, talismanic, overly-competitive, conceited or a cheat.

And that mesh of contradictions - plus the inevitable doubt about his physical condition - will place a sizeable question mark over his participation.

Let's deal with that last issue first. After touching down in Adelaide on Monday, Armstrong said: "I've prepared much harder this series of months than I ever would have in the past.

"The tests that we do on the bike, or on the road, or in the lab indicate that my January fitness is much better than it ever was the years when I was winning the Tour. But that doesn't mean anything until you get into the race."

Indeed. Policing the peloton is cycling's version of a taming a bucking bull. Even the iron-willed Armstrong admits: "I have a little bit of insecurity and a little bit of nervousness there. That's the reason I've tried to prepare hard.

"It's not just about your physical condition, it's about 200 guys going down the road and going around dangerous corners at 40-50 miles an hour. That's a dynamic that you can't simulate in training, so I've got to get in the group."

If he can't do it, would he pull out? Could Armstrong really cope with the stark reality of being uncompetitive?

Alongside that, there is the issue of whether the Tour wants him. The stench of drugs has followed the yellow jersey for years and Armstrong has not escaped the smell. In 2005, L'Equipe reported that six urine samples had retrospectively been tested positive for EPO, the blood-boosting drug. However an International Cycling Union investigation was unhappy with the validity of the examination and dismissed the claims.

Those allegations have helped the home fans' early admiration for Armstrong turn to dislike and then something much more serious. Speaking to the Guardian in November, his concerns were obvious - and not just with the public.

"There are directors of French teams who have encouraged people to take to the streets ... elbow to elbow," he said. "It's very emotional and tense.

"I don't want to enter an unsafe situation but you see this stuff coming out of France. There are some aggressive, angry emotions. If you believe what you read, my personal safety could be in jeopardy. Cycling is a sport of the open road and spectators are lining that road. [But] I try to believe that people, even if they don't like me, will let the race unfold."

You could argue that this will only add to the publicity surrounding his return and therefore play into the hands of his PR aims. But the French terrain is hard enough without having to take on the population too.

Finally, there is one factor from way out of left-field that may be important. Armstrong is set to be a father in June. Incredibly - and typically - the Sydney Olympian has defied the odds once more by conceiving naturally. His previous three children with ex-wife Kristin have via vitro fertilization with sperm he had banked before undergoing chemotherapy.

The birth will fall between the Giro d'Italia and the Tour. Of course his preparations will be drawing to a close by then but children make the most concrete-headed males think again.

Undoubtedly, Armstrong will prove his physical strength in Australia next week. This is a man who has conquered his body like perhaps no-one else on the planet.

The decisive factors in his participation will surely be more about mentality and motivation.

But, given his back story, no one can even begin to reproach this particular determined bugger for thinking life is too short to take the Tour.

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