With the time trialing talent now depleted, writes Jack Houghton, only misfortune should deny Ganna on a day where little should move in the overall standings
"If Ganna avoids calamity, he'll win the stage..."
What's the stage like?
A flat and fast 30.3km time trial brings this year's Giro to a close. Starting north of Milan, there is little to note on a route that takes place on wide, uncomplicated roads that will see the time trialing specialists pushing big gears. The final kilometres see a few sharp turns and a short cobbled section, meaning we might see a spill or two from anyone under pressure in the General Classification.
Who are the favourites?
It's hard to see past Filippo Ganna (1.321/3). The winner of four stages at last year's Giro, including three time-trials, he has become the dominant force against the clock in world cycling. Coming into this race, his form was in doubt, though. Although he had won time trials at the UAE Tour and Etoile de Bessèges, both in February, he disappointed in three subsequent attempts, including twice at his Giro warm-up, the Tour de Romandie. His jaw-dropping efforts on Stage 1 here, though, and his role as breakaway-controlling locomotive for Ineos Grenadiers throughout the race, have dispelled those form doubts.
If Ganna avoids calamity, he'll win the stage.
Who are the most likely outsiders?
Given his second-place finish on Stage 1, there will be some interest in Edoardo Affini (8.007/1) here. However, Affini is an explosive rider, comfortable in a sprint, and whereas the 8.6km of Stage 1 would have suited him, it's hard to see him maintaining his position over more than three times that distance here.
Remi Cavagna (8.007/1) is a better bet. He beat Ganna at the Tour de Romandie, will prefer this longer course, and has shown he retains top form after his breakaway efforts in recent stages. He can probably finish ahead of General Classification hopeful Joao Almeida (20.0019/1), who will be hoping to climb up to a top five spot by taking significant time out of those rivals who struggle at the discipline. Neither, though, are likely to get near to Ganna.
Stage 1 tip, Victor Campenaerts, has subsequently abandoned the race, and likewise Remco Evenepoel, meaning this is a depleted time trial field.
What effect will it have on the overall markets?
With the Points Classification and Mountains Classification settled, today is all about finalising the podium for the General Classification. Given there is so little between the current top three of Egan Bernal, Simon Yates and Damiano Caruso when it comes to their time trialing, expect the placings to remain largely unaltered.
*Odds correct at the time of writing
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