World Snooker Final Tips: Ronnie can ease to a fourth world title

Paul Krishnamurty
06 May 2012

Ronnie O'Sullivan is the red-hot favourite to life his fourth World Championship title

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Paul Krishnamurty previews today's World Snooker Final, and although he expects Ali Carter to put up a brave fight, he simply can't see beyond Ronnie O'Sullivan.

Ronnie's been the best player in this tournament without doubt, although one must add none of his opponents have ruthlessly taken their chances.

As correctly predicted by Mike Norman before the semis, the World Snooker final will be contested between Ronnie O'Sullivan and Ali Carter - a repeat of the 2008 final which the Rocket won comprehensively. As Carter said in his post-match interview, he's four years older, wiser and hitting the ball really well. That is unlikely, however, to stop O'Sullivan winning a fourth world title.

Take nothing away from Carter, who has performed admirably over the past fortnight. Victory would complete a genuine sporting fairytale, considering he was an unconsidered 100.099/1 chance pre-tournament and threatened to quit the game when struggling with poor form and illness just a few months ago.

He's already pulled off two sizeable upsets to eliminate early favourite Judd Trump and in-form Stephen Maguire. If today's opponent was anyone bar O'Sullivan, I'd give Ali a great chance at 4.84/1, but his record against the Rocket is telling. In 12 previous encounters, Ronnie won every single time. Both men hail from Essex and must know each other's game inside out from practice and minor matchplay, which may explain Ronnie's dominance. He has a similarly one-sided record against another former practice opponent, Anthony Hamilton.

The counter argument is, of course, that Ronnie is never a totally reliable odds-on chance, always prone to a disaster session. He's been the best player in this tournament without doubt, although one must add none of his opponents have ruthlessly taken their chances. Nevertheless, Ronnie comprehensively delivered the goods in all three previous appearances in world finals and must be taken to do so again. In the last two, he beat Carter and Graeme Dott 18-8 and that scoreline is at the extreme end of the range I'm expecting. My advice is to back a combination of 18-8, 18-9, 18-10 and 18-11, which amounts to around a 3.185/40 chance.

I also fancy at least one high break in the final. 1.910/11 about over 130.5 is fair enough given the quality of both men's breakbuilding and I'm also having a trade on there being another 147 at 12.011/1 in the Number of Maximum Breaks market. Ronnie is of course the ultimate 147 merchant and if he were to hit say eight reds and blacks, this market would spark to life. The plan is to have three units at 12.011/1, then place an order to lay six units if the market shortens to 4.03/1, therefore at least doubling our money.

Recommended bets

Correct score
1.5u Ronnie O'Sullivan 18-8 @ 16.015/1
2u Ronnie O'Sullivan 18-9 @ 13.012/1
2u Ronnie O'Sullivan 18-10 @ 12.011/1
2u Ronnie O'Sullivan 18-11 @ 12.011/1