World Snooker Day 13 Tips: Rocket can blow away Stevens

Mike Norman
02 May 2012

Ronnie O'Sullivan looked in sensational form during his victory over Neil Robertson

Join

Twitter

Facebook

View the Betslip

Ronnie O'Sullivan was a joy to watch yesterday and he ought to be way too good for Matthew Stevens even though the Welshman is coming off the back of winning 11 consecutive frames in his last match, says Mike Norman

Stevens has obviously found some form to reach this stage of the tournament, but as his stats from his Quarter Final victory suggest, he’s not going to be good enough to beat an in-form O’Sullivan.

It was a fabulous day of entertainment on the green baize yesterday with Ronnie O'Sullivan playing some brilliant snooker to overcome Neil Robertson, and in doing so landing our 2.447/5 wager.

Remember, on Wednesday, I also advised you to back Ronnie in the Winner market at 3.185/40. He's now available to lay at just 1.664/6 if you want to lock in a profit, but I wouldn't advise that as he looks far and away the best player left in the competition and I can't see anyone stopping him winning his fourth World Championship.

In the day's other Quarter Final matches, Matthew Stevens won an astonishing 11 frames on the bounce to beat an out-of-sorts Ryan Day, whilst Ali Carter edged out Jamie Jones 13-11 in a titanic affair - that result delighting followers of my 'Over 21.5 Frames' advice.

O'Sullivan (1.654/6 to win the tournament) now meets Stevens (13.012/1), and Carter (10.09/1) will play Stephen Maguire (4.47/2) in the best-of-33 frames Semi Finals commencing today.

The Rocket is virtually un-backable at just 1.222/9 to beat Stevens in the Match Odds market so instead I'm going to Dutch some Correct Score outcomes as well as back him in the handicap market.

By his own admission Welshman Stevens will need to improve his game massively to upset the odds against O'Sullivan. His highest break during those 11 consecutive winning frames against Day was just 59 and his pot success rate was down at 85% (which highlights how dreadful Day played).

And in some ways, Stevens' performance over Day mirrors his last three or four seasons on the circuit. He's played some ordinary snooker, good enough to beat some opponents, but ultimately against the best players in the world he's been caught way short. He hasn't made a ranking event final for four years and this is the first World Championship that he has survived the first round since 2008.

Stevens has obviously found some form to reach this stage of the tournament, but as his stats from his Quarter Final victory suggest, he's not going to be good enough to beat an in-form O'Sullivan.

The Rocket is available to back at 1.9210/11 currently in the Steven +5.5 Frames market but I'm sure you'll be able to get matched at around 2.01/1 during the day. Stevens would need to win at least 12 frames to render this wager a loser and I just can't see that happening.

What I can see is the Welshman winning between seven and 10 frames, so dutching 17-7, 17-8, 17-9, and 17-10 in the Correct Score market will give you a return at odds of approximately 3.412/5 if successful. If you want any advice on what dutching is then please visit this link and type 'dutching' into the Search bar.

In the day's other Semi Final Maguire can be backed at 1.51/2 to beat Carter (3.02/1) and because I can't split these two then the latter has to be the recommendation from the outset. I'll assess this match in more detail this evening however.

Recommended Bets

Dutch 17-7, 17-8, 17-9, 17-10 (to O'Sullivan) @ 3.412/5
Back O'Sullivan in Stevens +5.5 Frames market @ 2.01/1
Back Ali Carter to beat Stephen Maguire @ 3.02/1