Trump to show fighting spirit
Day poses real threat to Wilson
Selby to maintain 100% record over Selt
Three of the leading candidates for this year's title start their matches on Wednesday - the last batch of the first round. Their chance may soon slightly improve as Judd Trump is in serious trouble, at 6-3 down to Anthony McGill.
Don't dismiss Trump just yet
First on that, I don't think Trump is done yet by any stretch. 6-3 halfway leads can evaporate very quickly and Judd's recent performances in majors have demonstrated his battling qualities. We're already on him to win 10-8 and 10-7.
Now add 10-9 to the portfolio at 11/2. If he doesn't win 10-6, our effective combined odds are now around 2.74. Only slightly behind the live 3.0 odds - which I reckon offer decent trading potential anyway.
Kyren Wilson kicks off at 10am against Ryan Day in what looks a high-class affair between two underachievers. Kyren's formidable Crucible record and strong form coming in entitle him to favouritism, but their career head-to-head stats urge caution.
Day leads 7-3, by a 39-30 margin. Now to be fair, he's been around at the top level for much longer and Kyren has won two of the last three. But it is not an encouraging sign towards backing a 4/9 chance.
Trust ton-machine Wilson
One bet I do like is the enhanced 5/6 about Wilson hitting two centuries. He hits one in less than every nine frames, and managed six in the recent Tour Championship semi-final, and two when losing the final, over this same best-of-19 format.
A more decisive and ominous head-to-head is Mark Selby's 8-0 lead over Matthew Selt. They start at 2.30 pm, with the Jester trading at a prohibitive 1.16.
Selt is no mug and sometimes highly competitive, at least in lesser ranking events. He's never gone beyond the last-32 here, though, and his form this season is way behind Selby - my main pick for the title.
I reckon this is a matter of what scoreline Selby wins by. Try a correct score combo on 10-6, 10-7 and 10-8, bearing in mind his longstanding tendency to start slowly or make hard work of early rounds.
10-6 pays 6/1 whilst 10-8 pays 17/2.
Also, use 10-7 as the first leg of the daily double.
Daily double (pays £34.00 to a £0.50 stake)
Mark Selby to win 10-7
Shaun Murphy to win 10-5
The only time Shaun Murphy played Si Jiahui previously, the latter was an 18 year-old amateur and produced one of the biggest upsets in majors history. He retains considerable potential and qualified thanks to two cracking wins over Tom Ford and Jordan Brown.
It would nevertheless be unfair to read anything into that previous encounter, because Murphy was playing with extreme back pain and really struggling.
Whereas now, in his own words, he's feeling better than for years and never in better form arriving at a world championship.
Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty