World Snooker Championship Day 4 Tips: Trump can edge out McGill again

Paul Krishnamurty
17 April 2023

Judd Trump starts his bid for a second world title today

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Paul Krishnamurty previews the three matches starting on Tuesday at the Crucible. He's tipping Judd Trump to progress but says Jack Lisowski has his work cut out...

Tough start for Trump
Saengkham could upset Lisowski
Wilson and Slessor to rack up the tons

Some good news to report on the daily multiple front! Sunday's treble (Walden, Jones, Junhui/Vafaei tons) landed yesterday, earning over ten units profit. I will tally and update the overall tournament stats in between rounds, when all matches have concluded.

Three matches begin on Tuesday - along with the rescheduled Milkins/Perry match, previewed yesterday. Two are definitely contenders for match of the round.

Trump tops the Tuesday bill

Judd Trump v Anthony McGill certainly warrants such a description. Two Crucible specialists re-running last year's epic last-16 contest, won 13-11 by Trump.

McGill is at least twice the player at this venue, in this format. He's won ten out of 18 matches here and is a live outsider for the title. I'm sure he will give Trump a tough match but am not backing the upset. Note the Scot trails 9-1 in their head-to-head.

Back Judd Trump to win 10-8 @

17/2

Back Judd Trump to win 10-7 @

17/2

Judd has proved he can win these long matches without being at his best. He was way off his peak last year, yet reached the final. Even more so when repeatedly snatching victory from the jaws of defeat at the UK Championship. Try dutching 10-7 and 10-8 scorelines at the combined odds of 4.75.

Also for the first leg of the daily treble, take the enhanced 5/6 about Trump hitting 2 or More Centuries.

Daily treble (pays £13.18 to a £1.00 stake)

Noppon Saengkham to win

3 or More Centuries in Wilson/Slessor

Judd Trump to Hit 2+ Centuries

Back the Daily Treble @ 13.0

The draw pitching Jack Lisowski against Noppon Saengkham influenced my outright picks. Either could have made the staking plan were they not facing one another.

Two players on the up

Lisowski reached the semis of the last two majors and would have done so here last year were it not for a deciding frame against John Higgins. Qualifier Saengkham has reached the last-16 twice already here, and was only denied a quarter-final place in 2020 by Mark Selby in a deciding frame.

Those stats read better when considering both have improved and are looking ever more comfortable in the elite environments. Jack obviously deserves favouritism but doesn't appeal at 1.62. I think this will be close, high-class and that the Thai is at least equal when it comes to the pressure of a tight final session.

Take attractive odds about Noppon winning 10-9 and 10-8 and add him to the daily treble too.

Back Noppon Saengkham to win 10-9 @

10/1

Back Noppon Saengkham to win 10-8 @

12/1

I've also got high hopes for the Gary Wilson v Elliott Slessor match. They are great friends and that rivalry may well bring out the best in both.

Tons bet looks a generous offer

Wilson is correctly a strong favourite at 1.45 on the exchange. He's stepped up a level this season, winning a ranking event and reaching the top-16. Gary has great memories of the Crucible, reaching the semis from being a qualifier in 2020.

Back 3 or More Centuries in Wilson/Slessor @

15/8

He's always been a good break-builder (better than his rankings have suggested) and Slessor is no slouch in the balls either. He hit four tons in three qualifying matches, including two in an outstanding win over Zhou Yuelong. Take the enhanced odds of 15/8 about 3 or more centuries in the match.

Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty