The pick of today's quarter-finals involves the 2005 champion and the 2011 runner-up. The ever popular Judd Trump starts as hot favourite, but Paul Krishnamurty reckons the market is badly wrong...
"Judd hasn't yet reached a final in 2013, nor beaten a player of Murphy's calibre. In fact the only top-16 player he's beaten this year in a main event is Barry Hawkins, and that needed a thrilling comeback and deciding frame."
In what has been a far from vintage renewal of the Betfair World Championship, Shaun Murphy has played as well as anyone and 'The Magician' rates outstanding value to upset the odds against Judd Trump in their quarter-final match. Prior to his victory over Graeme Dott in the previous round, I recommended backing Murphy at [17.0] to win the tournament with a view towards laying back for profit later. Rather than even consider such a defensive move just yet, however, I would advise anyone not already on to take the [13.5] currently on offer.
Opposing Trump on the handicap has gone wrong in the last two matches, albeit narrowly, but the strategy has worked wonders all year and demands perseverance. Judd hasn't yet reached a final in 2013, nor beaten a player of Murphy's calibre. In fact the only top-16 player he's beaten this year in a main event is Barry Hawkins, and that needed a thrilling comeback and deciding frame. An army of odds-on backers will doubtless point towards his typically flamboyant snooker against Dominic Dale and Marco Fu, but the truth is both spurned plenty of chances. Equally, give a heavy scorer like Trump more than one chance per frame and he'll punish you.
Murphy is vastly superior to either Dale or Fu and, if given regular chances, will likely take them. He's been cueing well all season and been an almost permanent feature in the latter stages of big events, reaching the semis at the China Open and Betfair Masters plus the UK Championship final. On each occasion he lost to one of the world's top-two players, Mark Selby and Neil Robertson, so he may be breathing a sigh of relief that they're both out already.
The draw could easily open right up for Murphy, who would be a heavy odds-on favourite against anyone else left in the tournament besides Trump, Ronnie O'Sullivan and Ding Junhui. Neither of the latter are playing flawless snooker, so it's not unimaginable that Shaun could even be favourite by the semi-final stage. For now of course we'll just be happy to get through and, if he does, the market will afford greater respect after beating a big name like Trump.
4u Shaun Murphy to win outright @ [17.0]
If not already on...