Previewing today's final, Paul Krishnamurty expects Trump and Robertson to go to the wire again and to carry on banging in the tons...
"Five tons isn't an extreme ask for these two in current form, over potentially 19 frames."
Once again, the formbook has been vindicated in the second biggest event of the snooker season. Judd Trump will play Neil Robertson in this afternoon's final over best of 19 frames. Expect a classic.
Trump has edge in recent encounters
This will be their fourth meeting in a final over the past 13 months. Two went to deciders. Trump won by the odd frame six weeks ago at the English Open. Robertson won the 2019 Champion of Champions 10-9. In between, Judd won the German Masters final by a more convincing 9-6 margin.
Those numbers, along with a 13-9 career lead to Trump, paint an accurate picture of their standing. No question, Trump is snooker's top dog and thoroughly deserves to start favourite. That Champion of Champions reverse was one of only two in a remarkable 14 finals since November 2018.
Robbo's 2020 standard is comparable
However the gap between them is not so great. Back at the start of 2020 he reached three straight finals, winning twice. Although he hasn't won this term yet, I would argue his overall standard has been more or less equal to anyone. He's hit 38 tons, one more than Trump.
Plus his standard this week is marginally superior. The Aussie was particularly sublime against Chris Wakelin, Mark Selby and Zhou Yuelong. Trump has produced his usual magic and been generally clinical, but not flawless. He didn't overwhelm Lu Ning in the semi.
The match odds are correct
This is all enough to retain confidence in my pre-tournament position on Robertson at 9.617/2. For the purposes of my outright column, I never lay these positions back because they would impact the long-term stats.
Were it a standalone position, though, I'd be cashing out. 1.814/5 about Trump is plenty big enough given his record in recent finals and against top players. He generally rises to these occasions in the manner of all great champions.
Five tons is well within their grasp
For my money the outright odds are spot on and value is likelier to be found in side markets. Total Centuries is interesting, with 11/10 about over 4.5 available. Five tons isn't an extreme ask for these two in current form, over potentially 19 frames.
I'm sure both are aware of the scoreline in their tight battle for most tons this season and will stay focused on that target once frames are won. They produced four in that English Open clash, just two in the German Masters but eight in the Champion of Champions over this slightly longer distance.
In addition, I'm backing this to go to a deciding frame. 10-9 either way pays just over 3/1. Its hardly scientific but we haven't had one since the last-32 so perhaps one is due. More pertinently, this bet always make sense when you're finding it hard to separate the two players.
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2020 UK Championship Daily Bets P/L: