UK Snooker Daily Tips: A quartet of picks from Monday's coupon

Very few players are in better form than Mark Williams
Very few players are in better form than Mark Williams
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Paul Krishnamurty continued to his profitable start to the UK Championship with three winners from three bets yesterday. Here's his four selections for Monday's third-round matches...

"If forced to choose an upset, Graeme Dott would be my pick against Trump at odds around [5.0]. Judd's play was very erratic in the opening round and he's had trouble against the former world champion before, losing their most recent encounter and only sharing eight previous matches."

It wasn't always plain sailing, with Shaun Murphy particularly giving his backers a fright, but all of yesterday's 'bankers' delivered. Besides 'The Magician', O'Sullivan, Higgins, Brecel and Bingtao all landed odds below [1.4] - as the UK Championship maintains it's historic tradition of being dominated by the top players.

Monday's third round coupon has a similar feel and, again, it isn't obvious where any upset will come. A four-fold involving the four sub [1.5] chances - Judd Trump, Neil Robertson, Mark Allen and Marco Fu - pays around [2.25].

If forced to choose an upset, Graeme Dott would be my pick against Trump at odds around [5.0]. Judd's play was very erratic in the opening round and he's had trouble against the former world champion before, losing their most recent encounter and only sharing eight previous matches.

Nevertheless, I'll stop short of predicting the upset and go for a lesser target - Dott to win four frames via the 2.5 Frame Handicap. This forms the third leg of today's treble - alongside Marco Fu and Mark Williams, who are also advised as a double for bigger stakes.

Were his match played 10 days ago, Fu's odds would have been far too prohibitive. Back then, Lu Haotian was a 1000/1 chance for the Northern Ireland Open, about whom absolutely no justification to bet could be manufactured. After reaching the semis there and notching a couple of wins in York, people are remembering the 20-year-old's potential.

Be wary of an over-reaction. The only player anywhere near elite status that Haotian faced during this run was Yan Bingtao - to whom he lost comprehensively 6-2. He hasn't suddenly started producing elite standard snooker. Fu is leagues above anyone the youngster has beaten and shouldn't have too much trouble asserting his supremacy on this big stage.

Due to the quality of his opponent, Mark Williams couldn't really be described as a banker but he remains very much someone to keep onside. He could barely have been more impressive in winning the Northern Ireland Open and looks a match for anyone right now. He's met Ryan Day three times this season, winning the last two easily.

Finally at [1.17], Mark Allen is too short to consider for a straight bet to win the match against Peter Lines but this match looks absolutely perfect for correct scores. 47-year-old Lines is highly unlikely to win or come close to it, but has enough experience to avoid humiliation. If it turns out that way, the range of winning margins is very limited. 6-2 and 6-3 combined pays around [2.7] - not bad for perhaps the likeliest third out of six possible pro-Allen scorelines.


Recommended bets

4 units double (pays 11/10)

Marco Fu @ 4/11 (vs Haotian)
Mark Williams @ 8/15 (vs Day)

Add for 1 unit treble (pays 18-5)

Graeme Dott to win the 2.5 Frame Handicap @ 2.2 (v Trump)

Mark Allen to beat Peter Lines 6-2 1u @ [5.0]
Mark Allen to beat Peter Lines 6-3 1u @ [6.0]


Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty

2017 UK Snooker P/L:

Stakes: 13.0
Returns: 24.5

Total: +11.5 units

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