German Masters Snooker: One player to back from each quarter

Paul Krishnamurty
31 January 2023

Mathew Stevens is a hefty each-way price

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Paul Krishnamurty previews the next ranking event, which starts tomorrow and will be covered live, as always throughout, on Betfair TV...

Robertson red-hot favourite in weak field
Great opportunity for Lisowski
Each-way on outsiders could be the answer

Despite having dominated much of 2021-22, Neil Robertson has yet to win a title this season. A gilt-edged opportunity to correct that starts tomorrow at the Tempodrom, Berlin.

At odds of 4.03/1, the Aussie starts as the shortest-priced favourite in a ranking event so far this term.

Weak field after qualifying round shocks

The explanation is that, when the last-128 and last-64 rounds were played before Christmas, a spate of upsets eliminated most of Robertson's closest rivals at the top of the game.

Then further carnage ensued when last year's finalists Zhao Xintong and Yan Bingtao were both suspended amid a match fixing investigation. Li Hang and Zhao Jianbo are also out for the same reason, leaving a field of just 28.

Notable advantage for bye recipients

Thus, four players have a bye through to the last 16. In the top section, Tom Ford and Jimmy Robertson are the fortunate recipients. The two to beat are Kyren Wilson and Anthony McGill.

Robertson has frequently been selected for this column over the past year. Although there has been no return as yet, he hasn't disgraced himself. This season, he's reached a quartet of last-32s before running into a superior opponent.

With only two wins needed to reach the semis, this is a perfectly realistic path. He'll play the winner of Kyren Wilson versus Sam Craigie.

That's a very tough start for the tournament third favourite, who has been disappointing of late anyway. McGill is preferred and was shortlisted.

Dream draw for Lisowski

It has become repetitive, if accurate, to say that Jack Lisowski's first win is overdue and quite probably imminent.

He couldn't have written an easier draw. First, Zhang Anda, whom he has dominated 5-0 in previous encounters.

Then either Jimmy White or little-known Chinese 21 year-old Peng Yisong. The latter beat Mark Selby in a huge first-round shock.

Win those and Lisowki will face a player outside the top-32 in the quarters. The only problem is the price. Is it really sensible to take 9/2 about a player who has never won a ranking title?

O'Connor offers an each-way alternative

Whilst I expect Jack to reach the semis at least, these odds are too short for my liking. Instead, I'll take an each-way alternative from that quartet scheduled to meet him in the last-eight.

Joe O'Connor gets the nod, soon after his brilliant run to the Scottish Open final.

To get there, he beat Robertson, Mark Williams, Ricky Walden, Zhao Xintong and Ding Junhui. This top prospect clearly fears nobody and would present a tough challenge for Lisowski.

Robertson's draw not straightforward

Quarter three is primarily about Robertson but it may not prove so simple for the Aussie. He starts out against practice partner Joe Perry, whose 13-8 head-to-head deficit is perfectly respectable given the gulf between their career achievements.

Perry has won two of their last three matches, including at the UK Championship.

Furthermore, to reach the semis, Robertson may well need to beat Luca Brecel. The Belgian is rapidly catching up with the elite pack at the top of the rankings and looks well capable of contending in any event.

I'm struck by three-time ranking event winner Luca's odds being three times higher than Lisowski, despite his failure to win titles.

However in keeping with the general staking plan, I'll opt instead for a cheaper, each-way alternative. Ultimately, I do expect Robertson to win this event - probably against Lisowski in the final - but both their odds are too short to consider.

Could Stevens roll back the years?

Matthew Stevens is no forlorn hope in an event of this stature. Whilst unreliable nowadays, this former major champion and triple crown specialist retains his ability.

He beat Ding Junhui to get here and a scan of this season's results show him running into stiff opposition and losing close matches.

The Welshman has lost to Mark Williams, Kyren Wilson and Joe Perry in deciding frames, whilst Ronnie O'Sullivan ended his run at the UK Championship.

Stevens has beaten Brecel in two of their three encounters and would warrant serious consideration if landing the upset in their first round match.

Chinese pair appeal at tasty odds

Finally, like the top quarter, the bottom section is reduced to six players following the suspensions. Ricky Walden and Ali Carter receive byes to the last-16.

Neither of these rare winners appeal at their correctly shortened odds. This will only be Walden's second last-16 of the season.

The two that appeal from an each-way perspective are Cao Yupeng and Pang Junxu. The latter looked a major prospect when first arriving on the scene a couple of years ago. He hasn't kicked on quite as expected, but could very plausibly give Walden a very tough time in the last-16.

Preference though is for the highly talented Yupeng. I've felt he was capable of a long run somewhere ever since he returned from his own match-fixing ban. Before that, and since on occasion, he looked liked a top-16 player and reached two ranking finals. Considering he's a hot favourite in the last-32, 50/1 will do nicely.

*Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty

Paul's snooker outright profit/loss:

2022/23: +57 units
2021/22: +48 units
2020/21: -22 units
2019/20: +6 units
2018/19: +155 units
2017/18: +106 units

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