Paul Krishnamurty analyses both of Tuesday's Championship League groups and recommends a trio of match betting selections...
"Even money about Burden beating Feilong seems solid enough. The latter has only won eight matches in the past two seasons, mostly against similarly low grade types."
Contrary to general expectation, upsets have been relatively thin on the ground so far. Both group favourites won on Monday and whilst neither did so yesterday, Jack Lisowski didn't lose any games and was eliminated by the close second favourite, Luca Brecel, by virtue of scoring the highest break.
I am still, nevertheless, loathe to back odds-on chances in this short format - even when the players in question are expected to go well.
Wilson and Perry both strong favourites
In Group 4, Joe Perry and Mark King are well ahead in terms of achievement compared to Sam Baird and Harvey Chandler. I reckon Perry's easier, natural style is likelier to hold up without much practice than most, but that is reflected by odds of 8/11.
Baird is a capable type - took a peak Mark Selby to 13-11 in the last-16 of a World Championship - whose career has gone backwards. Chandler has a bit of potential. I can see this being one of the more competitive groups.
Wilson reportedly well-prepared
Kyren Wilson is a prohibitive 4/7 favourite for Group 12 and will take plenty of beating. The 'Warrior' is one of the few with a full size table to practice on at home and I've heard several rumours that he is well prepared.
Wilson's principal opponent Ryan Day had been really struggling for some time, while the outsider of four Chen Feilong will likely be out of his depth here. Alfie Burden may prove the biggest threat to Wilson.
The Perry/Wilson double to win their groups pays just under 7/4. I wouldn't deter anyone from that bet but prefer to play a few individual matches.
Burden trusted against weak opponent
First even money about Burden beating Feilong seems solid enough. The latter has only won eight matches in the past two seasons, mostly against similarly low grade types. Burden hasn't exactly thrived during that time but he's a few rungs higher up the ladder and capable of a competitive standard.
Wilson at 11/10 to beat Day also appeals for the aforementioned reasons. If the reports that he is well prepared are correct, he must be regarded a front-line candidate for this event. I don't expect a sudden return to form for Day.