Championship League Snooker Daily Tips: Swerve odds-on options with these trading angles

Snooker player David Gilbert
David Gilbert could be a vulnerable odds-on favourites

With so many questions around the format and form, Paul Krishnamurty recommends some back to lay trading angles for the opening day's matches...

"Avoid backing many odds-on selections during this opening group stage. I expect a lot of scrappy frames and shortage of big breaks. The situation is ripe for upsets."

World number one Judd Trump will lead the way on Monday afternoon, as snooker returns at the Championship League. The importance of caution must be emphasised before gambling on the first top-class action since March. As discussed in my outright preview, this revamped event is a known unknown in many respects.

Trump odds are too prohibitive

This is far from an opportune moment to pile into heavy odds-on favourites, however obvious they may appear. For example on the pre-Covid evidence, Judd Trump deserves to start 1.330/100 favourite for Group 2. But taking such odds in a short match, round-robin format when nobody knows how much if at all anyone has played, is the definition of reckless gambling.

Those comments don't reflect much doubt that Trump will progress. Such a natural talent will probably shine through almost immediately and, in normal times, he is several leagues ahead of Daniel Wells, David Grace and Elliott Slessor.

Nevertheless, I intend to avoid backing many odds-on selections during this opening group stage. I expect a lot of scrappy frames and shortage of big breaks. The situation is ripe for upsets and employing the sort of in-play trading angles discussed in my recent piece for Betfair's Masterclass Series.

Draws could provide a solid trading angle

Here's one plan. There will be plenty of 2-2 draws and, more pertinently, plenty of opportunities for that scoreline to trade much shorter than the starting odds.

So long as one player doesn't go 3-0 up, the bet will be very much alive going into the final frame. There's then a very high chance that the draw will be matched at odds-on at some point during that final frame, when one player is at the table on a break.

I like this trade for all three of Trump's matches, for which the draw is available at a minimum of 3.39/4. Set the lay order to cash out at 1.51/2 to at least double the money. If the outsider leads 2-1, that lay target might even be hit before the start of the final frame.

Outsiders look overpriced in Gilbert's group

The Group 13 betting looks too one-sided in favour of David Gilbert and Stuart Carrington. Sure, Jak Jones and Jackson Page are much inferior over the course of a season, involving longer matches, but neither are mugs. Their combined odds to win the group amount to just less than 4/1.

Jones and Page will meet in the last of the day's 12 matches. Therefore if either retains a chance of winning the group, we will know precisely what they need to do and how we can trade out of the bet. I'll be looking to cash out at around 2.01/1 for the group - again for twice the stake, working on a 'double your money at worst' plan.

Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty

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