2017 World Snooker Championship: One player to back from each quarter

Paul Krishnamurty
13 April 2017

Ding Junhui heads the strongest ever Asian challenge

Join

Twitter

Facebook

View the Betslip

With the qualifiers confirmed and the draw complete, Paul Krishnamurty previews the highlight of the snooker season, which starts on Saturday with wall-to-wall live coverage, and all games available on Betfair Live Video...

"At the start of the year, Hawkins was playing better snooker than anyone...He's improved vastly in triple crowns and beaten numerous apparent superiors in them - most recently Selby at the Masters. No way should Hawkins be nearly four times the odds of Trump."

Back Barry Hawkins 3u @ 19.018/1

Back Mark Selby 10u @ 5.95/1

The general consensus is that this year's World Snooker Championship is the most wide-open ever. There has never been so many potential tournament winners - the last 12 produced 11 different champions - and there are certainly no weak links among the seeds. Now rankings are determined throughout, rather than at the end of the season, all the top-16 must have some recent form in the bank.

Yet for all these trends and a competitive betting market that reflects it, there is one blindingly obvious answer to this puzzle. The world number one and defending champion of both this and the game's second most important title. The only player to have won more than once during those last 12 events, including the most recent China Open. Nobody is better suited to the longer matches that define this championship and pressure-cooker atmosphere of the Crucible Theatre than Mark Selby.

And yet, the Jester from Leicester doesn't even start as favourite. That is partly due to a likely tough quarter-final draw against either Neil Robertson or Marco Fu, but the same could be said about any opponent by that stage. The latter has been a long-term fancy for this during an excellent campaign. Twice a narrow semi-final loser, Fu has improved and represents good value at 25.024/1.

However Selby will start hot favourite against whoever he plays and has the easier start on paper. Whereas Fu must negotiate one of the most dangerous qualifiers in Luca Brecel, probably before triple crown winner Robertson, it's hard to see Fergal O'Brien troubling Selby first up and while Ryan Day has enjoyed a great run himself, the Welshman would be a big outsider in the last-16.

Back Ding Junhui 4u @ 14.013/1

A second reason why Selby's odds are holding up is that few dare write off the greatest player of all-time, despite any lack of encouraging recent evidence. Ronnie O'Sullivan has rarely started a World Championship at odds above 6.05/1 and certainly not since 2012. Yet this season's form - whether against his closest rivals or vastly inferior qualifiers - simply doesn't reflect the odds.

Until demonstrating that he's back to his best - a call we can make mid-tournament if necessary - Ronnie must be opposed. This draw looks tough all the way, starting with arguably the most impressive performer in the qualifiers, Gary Wilson. Next up he'll face either Shaun Murphy or the outstanding 17-year-old prospect Yan Bingtao.

Though Bingtao is probably too inexperienced to contend on his Crucible debut, he will make a big impression. If he could get past Murphy and Ronnie, it would likely set up an all-Chinese quarter-final against either Ding, Liang Wenbo or another excellent youngster, Zhou Yuelong.

For all the growing claims of others, though, Ding remains top dog in China and, at the age of 30, is ready to peak on the biggest stage. Having previously underachieved in this event, last year's run to the final represented a big step forward. With a Masters and a couple of UK titles to his name already, the time has come for Ding to join the triple crown club.

Back Martin Gould 0.5u @ 160.0159/1

If an outsider is to come through, this relatively weak quarter offers the best chance. Moreover, eight-time ranking or PTC finalist Gould is arguably the strongest qualifier. Extremely talented, the Pinner Potter often seemed to lack confidence on the biggest stages in the past but has enough experience of them now. He hasn't played badly in defeat on recent visits here and showed good form in Germany and Wales during February.

Gould's first match is against the section's 'big-gun' but John Higgins is very opposable. He hasn't gone past the quarters since winning the fourth of his world titles in 2011 and, while retaining his talent, has become inconsistent with age. I can't see the Wizard of Wishaw holding his form for 17 days.

As for the other three seeds, 2015 champion Stuart Bingham hasn't been in that sort of form since while Mark Allen has become the world's most infuriating under-achiever. Kyren Wilson reached the quarters last year and returned to his best form in China last time. A case could be made for any of that trio but Gould is preferred at massive odds.

Back Barry Hawkins 3u @ 19.018/1

The other, principal explanation for Selby's attractive odds is that the betting world is buying into the Judd Trump hype machine. There is an assumption that, after some improving results and some evidence of smarter shot selection, the Juddernaut will finally fulfil his undoubted potential.

For sure, there have been times in recent months when he appeared to be peaking but the mistakes are still there. Regardless of how good Trump looks when winning frames, almost every opponent gets plenty of chances. That may not be enough to save Rory Mcleod in the first round but it does nothing to warrant taking short odds against elite players.

Granted, Trump is the man to beat in this section but, given their much superior Crucible records, better value lies with Hawkins and Ali Carter. The latter has twice been runner-up to a peak-form Ronnie here and is not without recent form.

However Hawkins has been on my radar for several months. At the start of the year, he was playing better snooker than anyone and was incredibly unlucky to lose 5-4 to Trump in Wales. Despite that reverse, their head-to-head is 3-3. He's improved vastly in triple crowns and beaten numerous apparent superiors in them - most recently Selby at the Masters. No way should Hawkins be nearly four times the odds of Trump.