Giro d'Italia Stage 21 Tips: Tulett on Ineos rescue mission

Jack Houghton
28 May 2022
3:00 min read

The absence of specialist time triallists like Tom Dumoulin (pictured) will help van der Poel

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Mathieu van der Poel is the most likely winner, writes Jack Houghton, but his odds look cramped

"Tulett has shown steady improvement in each of his three professional time trials to date..."

1 pt Back Ben Tulett at 50.0049/1

What's the stage like?

A 17.1km twisting and turning time trial - almost identical to the finishing stage in 2019 - with a gentle category four climb at the halfway point.

It would be normal to look for specialist time triallists to supply the win here, but with that midpoint climb, the meandering course, and the accumulated fatigue of the three weeks of this Giro, the winner won't necessarily be obvious.

Who are the favourites?

Mathieu van der Poel (2.506/4) showed on Stage 2 that he is an increasingly accomplished rider against the clock, especially on stop-and-start courses that don't reward the out-and-out power guys. The withdrawal of Yates and Dumoulin, his closest rivals on Stage 2, strengthen his chances, and he is the most likely winner.

He should have the better of Matteo Sobrero (7.006/1) - who was fourth on Stage 2 - and time trial specialist Edoardo Affini (9.008/1), who came close to a breakaway win on Stage 18 but has looked lacklustre against the clock of late, and who won't suit the course.

Who are the most likely outsiders?

The best value, though, is likely Ben Tulett (50.0049/1).

Ineos will be keen to rescue something from the Giro after Carapaz's spectacular capitulation on Stage 20, and Tulett has shown steady improvement in each of his three professional time trials to date. He's a more speculative choice, but far better value that van der Poel.

What effect will it have on the overall markets?

It would take a disaster for Jai Hindley to surrender the Pink Jersey after his spectacular performance on Stage 20.

Pre-Giro tip Carapaz, then, won't be winning, but hopefully the spectacular run of stage tips in the last three weeks means your betting banks look healthy.

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*Odds correct at the time of writing

Jack Houghton's Giro d'Italia 2022 P&L:
Staked: 39.0 Returned: 89.9 P/L: +50.9