Giro d'Italia Stage 13 Tips: Nizzolo big price on perfect course

Jack Houghton
19 May 2022
3:00 min read

Giacomo Nizzolo (left) often misses out, but can secure win on perfect course

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It's hard to split the favourites on in-between course, writes Jack Houghton, who thinks Nizzolo can finally deliver

"The course will suit Giacomo Nizzolo, who has been showing solid recent form without getting in front at the right time..."

1pt Back Giacomo Nizzolo at 22.0021/1

What's the stage like?

The last chance for a bunch sprint until Stage 18, the sprinters will be keen to make the most of the opportunity on this short, 157km stage.

Possible interest points are a category three climb 100km out from the finish, where the puncheurs may try and drop the out-and-out speedsters, a tricky couple of turns just over 1km out that could easily bring calamity to a big bunch, and the slight climb to the line.

Who are the favourites?

Arnaud Demare (5.509/2), Fernando Gaviria (7.006/1) and Mathieu van der Poel (7.5013/2) will likely top most lists. All of them can sprint, don't mind doing so on an incline, and, crucially, all should be able to stay in contention on that early climb. They are hard to separate, though, and all of them look about the right price. The value lies elsewhere.

Who are the most likely outsiders?

Alberto Dainese (10.009/1) is front of mind after his surprise win on Stage 11. Given his youth, it's easy to assume he will now go on to even better things, but a lot went right for him on Wednesday - and wrong for others - and he could conceivably have to wait another couple of years until his next professional win.

Mark Cavendish (12.0011/1) could win this, but the course isn't perfect for him: he'll likely get dropped on the early climb, have to chase back on, and would prefer a flatter finish.

The course will suit Giacomo Nizzolo (22.0021/1), though, who has been showing solid recent form without getting in front at the right time. He looks value at the odds.

What effect will it have on the overall markets?

With the Alps looming on the horizon, this is a day for the General Classification contenders to stay out of trouble and prepare themselves mentally for the brutality that awaits on days to come.

*Odds correct at the time of writing

Jack Houghton's Giro d'Italia 2022 P&L:
Staked: 23.0 Returned: 56.9 P/L: +33.9