Dan Fitch thinks that the gold medal match between Brazil and Spain is heading for extra time, while he's also backing Japan to beat Mexico for the second time.
"In the knockout stages, Brazil could only beat Egypt 1-0 and then needed penalties to defeat Mexico in the semi-finals, after a 0-0 draw."
Japan already have a win against Mexico
Olympics Men's Football Bronze Medal Match
Mexico 2.6813/8 v Japan 2.6813/8; The Draw 3.613/5
Friday 6 August, 12:00
Mexico are the most narrow of favourites to win the bronze medal, when they meet the hosts Japan on Friday.
This is a surprise considering that Japan not only have home advantage, but have also beaten Mexico already in this competition. Japan won all three of their group games, which included a 2-1 victory over Mexico, as they topped Group A.
Japan have been less impressive during the knockout rounds than Mexico. They needed penalties to defeat New Zealand after a 0-0 draw and were then beaten 1-0 in extra-time by Spain.
Mexico produced a thrilling performance to beat South Korea 6-3 in the quarter-finals and then took Brazil to a penalty shootout after a 0-0 draw. That might have slightly swung things in their favour, but the value would appear to be with Japan.
In five matches, Japan have only conceded once, which was Roberto Alvarado's 85th minute consolation goal for Mexico. It could be worth taking a chance on under 1.5 goals landing at 3.711/4, as it did in both semi-finals. Japan are 1.9420/21 in the Draw No Bet market, with no side having yet beaten them inside 90 minutes.
Brazil are just about worthy favourites
Olympics Men's Football Gold Medal Match
Brazil 2.789/5 v Spain 3.185/40; The Draw 3.02/1
Saturday 7 August, 12:30
Spain were the pre-Olympics favourites to take gold and were once again the shortest price at the semi-final stage, but Brazil are expected to taste glory.
Brazil are 1.8810/11 to win gold, with Spain out at 2.0621/20. Though the identity of the favourite has gone back and forth, what hasn't changed is the fact that these nations were expected to meet in the final. Right from the outset it looked as if they had the strongest squads and so it's proved.
In their opening game, Brazil beat Germany 4-2 and it seemed as if the goals would be flowing for them during this competition. That hasn't been the case. They drew 0-0 with Ivory Coast in their second group game, before beating Saudi Arabia 3-1. In the knockout stages, Brazil could only beat Egypt 1-0 and then needed penalties to defeat Mexico in the semi-finals, after a 0-0 draw.
Spain struggled for goals in Group C, drawing 0-0 with Egypt, beating Australia 1-0 and then drawing 1-1 with Argentina. In the quarter-finals they exploded into life with a 5-2 win over Ivory Coast in extra time, having been mere seconds away from elimination at one stage. The semi-finals saw Spain revert back to type, as they beat Japan 1-0 thanks to a goal from Marco Asensio, in the 115th minute of extra time.
With Brazil having found it difficult to score against well organised defences, this promises to be another low scoring game. The 0-0 half-time draw is available at 2.35/4, having landed in four of Spain's five games.
If pushed to pick a winner, I'd go for Brazil for their extra firepower, but it really could go either way. Extra time would appear to be a strong possibility, which is reflected in the short price of 3.02/1 for the draw.