The All-Ireland football final is this Sunday with Dublin chasing a fourth title in a row. Standing in their way is a rejuvenated Tyrone. Betfair Ambassador Tomás Ó Sé expects another Dublin victory.
"I've had a look at the markets and created my own bet: Dublin to win by 1-5 points, first goal, Dean Rock, over 37.5 points which you can find here."
What do you do with Dublin? It is a question Tyrone will have been asking themselves for the last few weeks. Do you go ultra-defensive as some do or do you push up? Tyrone have all these things in their head. I don't care what they do, Tyrone will lose. Every question that Tyrone could possibly ask Dublin to have an answer for. Let's break it down.
Each goalkeeper will get about 60 % of their kick outs off without any opposition, but there will be about 40% that they will be under pressure. Who do you think will be more under pressure in those situations? Cluxton is a proven standout goalkeeper when the heat is on. We don't know that about Niall Morgan, Dublin will change from the way they played against Galway where I felt they really didn't pressure the goalie enough especially in that first half.
In the last match, Dublin had a 78% success rate on shots. Tyrone against Monaghan, Tyrone had 30 shots, 10 went wide, 6 dropped short. A 47% conversion rate as opposed to what Dublin did. I know it is only one game and the normal average is around 60% but Dublin are so much better at converting scores. Almost 80%.
Defence and counter attack
Tyrone's biggest strength is their defence and their counter attacking. Dublin will not fear their defence, they will work it down the channels till they get an opportunity
Tyrone's counter attack is massive, the McCann's, the Mattie Donnelly's coming down the middle and counter attacking at pace, it's all based on pace, bursts of speed. If you remember down in Omagh earlier in the year, Dublin will get down and dirty with that counter attack style, they will be waiting for them down at the 21-yard line. Both teams will be getting better and better, that is true. But the Dubs defensively can handle Tyrone, they will answer everything Tryone ask them.
Mattie Donnelly, Niall Sludden, Peter Harte are Tyrone's key men. But Dublin have the players to essentially mark these three out of the game. We saw that when the sides last met in Omagh. Where do Tyrone go from that? Colm Kavanagh was substituted the last time they played. These are Tyrone's go to men. For Tyrone to have a chance they must improve. For Tyrone to win, these lads will have to play out of their skin. I think Dublin have the men to halt them lads.
On the flip side, do Tyrone have guys to change the game? You look at Dublin, Jack McCaffrey, James McCarthy, Brian Fenton, Ciarán Kilkenny. Do Tyrone have the players to stop them? Even if they do, up pops a Brian Howard or a Scully bombing forward and upsetting the defence. Grab a goal. There are just way too many fires to put out in my opinion. It would have to be a perfect storm for Tyrone to win, it's like the Mayo's, it's like my own county Kerry, if this happens, if that happens - if, if, if. There is just too many ifs with Tyrone.
Will Tyrone spring a Surprise?
In 2003 we played Tyrone, in 2005, 2008 we played Tyrone. Every year, they throw a curveball.
For example, in 2008, we had Kieran Donaghy and Tommy Walsh absolutely flying it. The Twin towers, they were calling them, and Tyrone put in the two McMahons into the full back line to deal with them. They had never played in the back line at all and we were caught off guard. Mikey Harte does not fear change at all. He even changed his style the last day out. I didn't see Tyrone pushing up on Monaghan. That was a change from how they had been playing all season. Colm Kavanagh was the only defender to stay back, who saw that coming? Harte will have something planned to try and surprise the Dubs.
Padraig Hampsey might be the one that they use as a curveball this year.
I believe Dublin will win by 1-5 points. It's the All-Ireland and you never want to go out and get beaten and you definitely don't want a big defeat, so Tyrone should be able to keep the score down.
As the season has gone on Tyrone have become a lot more committed to attacking play. They are completely different from the side they were last year. So, credit to them. This Dublin side is going for four in a row though. People are barely even talking about that which shows how much cleverer and cute they are with the media. I have no doubt Dublin are desperate for that four in a row and I have no doubt that they will be back and go after the five in a row.
The only question with the handicap is, will Tyrone lose their grip on the game in and around the 50 minute mark? That is what we have seen from other sides who have played Dublin this year. All you have to do is watch the semi-final against Galway and the way Dublin twisted the nut after half time. However, Tyrone beat Dublin by 6-3 in the last 10 mins of that game in Omagh earlier in the year, so we know that Tyrone can hold firm and finish strong. They are the only team to do so against Dublin this year. A Dubs victory inside the six points is the bet for me.
I have also had a look at the markets and created my own bet. I have gone for Dublin to win by 1-5 points, first goal, Dean Rock, over 37.5 points which you can find here.