Malaysian GP Betting: Button eyes the victory but can he survive the storms?
Brawn were again fastest for Sunday's Grand Prix but the likely afternoon rainfall makes Button a risky bet at [2.08], says Scott Ferguson.
Brawn GP once again set the pace in qualifying with Jenson Button always seeming to have more up his sleeve when challenged. This week poses new 'problems' for the pace-setting team. Now they are the hunted, the team in everyone's sights. They will also have to prove themselves in the wet. Thunderstorms are a given late in the Malaysian afternoon.
One point in their favour is the open spaces of Sepang. With plenty of run-off area, safety cars are less likely, which diminishes the chances of the drivers needing binoculars to see Button's tailfin suddenly getting a massive leg-up. So we could easily see a winning margin of 30 seconds or more, this race does have a history of it.
With barely enough time to pack up the cars, fly to Malaysia, check into the luxury hotels 90km away from the track and turn up for practice, don't expect many improvements from the teams who struggled in Australia. Teams who didn't have the best of luck provide any value you may be searching for.
The Toyotas of Jarno Trulli and Timo Glock have bounced back well from starting in pit lane in Melbourne. Trulli starts alongside Button this time and Glock has been quick this week, but keeps running wide. They look to be benchmark for the Winning Car w/o Brawn market. Mark Webber was taken out on the first lap in Melbourne and had no chance after that. But let's face it, Webber is your classic gunner and constantly finds trouble in races. Robert Kubica and Sebastien Vettel got a bit too excited last week in the closing stages, and will have a few drivers ahead of them on the grid.
The big money teams will be praying for rain to get into contention. Ferrari had a mare keeping Felipe Massa in the pits during the closing stages of Q1 and missing the cut. Starting from 16 makes his job mighty tough. Kimi Raikkinonen just doesn't look on the pace yet, at least until they sort out his problems with KERS, but at least he'll start in front of the two McLarens. Lewis Crocodile Tears Hamilton and Heiki Kovalainen are well back in the field and their best chance is also rain.
One key factor to note in this year's coverage and rules changes each team has to publish the racing weights of their vehicles, so you can see how light or heavy the fuel loads are.
Button is the obvious one to beat but can you take flip-a-coin odds when you know it's going to bucket down at some stage? I'd be holding my cards close to my chest until as late as possible watch the live weather reports in the build-up. If he gets to stretch a break before it gets messy, then he should be fine. But when it's all up for grabs early? That's a risk.
Two bets I like:
Timo Glock 0.5pt for the win, 1.5pts for the podium.
Winning margin >10 seconds. This race regularly ends with the field well strung out and the chance of a safety car is greatly reduced on a proper circuit.