World Matchplay Tips: Rocket to lead lipstick assault

Baxter looked in complete control of his game in the first round.

Jaymes Monte picks his best bet from the second quartet of second round matches at the Winter Gardens this Thursday...

"Both Winstanley and Baxter build their games around their 180 scoring"

Back Baxter to hit most 180s @ 2.68/5
Back Over 11.5 match 180s @ 2.111/10

Dean Winstanley and Ronnie Baxter each came through enthralling first round matches, against the odds, to book their place in the second round. Winstanley coming back from 5-0 down to beat Gary Anderson 13-11 and Baxter keeping the in-form Dave Chisnall at arm's length to win 10-7.

Now a quarter-final date beckons for one of these men and punters are unable to decide which of the pair is most likely to progress. The Betfair market hovering at around 2.01/1 for either a Winstanley or Baxter win.

Rather than trying to pick a winner from two very evenly matched players, I am instead looking to a couple of the peripheral markets for a value bet.

In beating Anderson, Winstanley produced a total of eight maximums (from 24 legs) while Baxter hit six (in 17 legs) against Chisnall. Thus equating to 0.33 and 0.35 180s per leg, respectively. If we apply an exact science then we need a total of just 17 legs in order to break the 11.5 barrier in this race-to-13 match, making odds of 2.111/10 particularly appealing.

Of course these types of mathematical equations offer no certainty. But both Winstanley and Baxter build their games around their 180 scoring and with a close, and therefore long, match anticipated Over 11.5 180s looks a standout bet.

My second selection is in the Most 180s market. As the stats above highlight these two players are very evenly matched in this department, but that is not reflected in the odds, where The Rocket can be backed at around 2.68/5. One that could go either way, but the value lies with Ronnie.

Recommended Bets:
Back Baxter to hit most 180s @ 2.68/5
Back Over 11.5 match 180s @ 2.111/10

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