Wayne Mardle: Wright has the wrong darts in maximum battle
Wayne Mardle had his tipping eye in yesterday, landing a pair of winners for his Betfair column, and he has four to consider from this evening's World Matchplay card...
"I can't believe the odds of this match! Mensur and Ian are so closely matched on ability I honestly thought the odds would have been more like 5/6 the pair, maybe Suljovic just favourite. So, seeing as Ian is 17/10, he has to be backed."
Odds are wrong on a White win
This bet has a caveat, it's for those that haven't backed Mensur outright - as I recommended in my tournament preview.
I can't believe the odds of this match! Mensur and Ian are so closely matched on ability I honestly thought the odds would have been more like 5/6 the pair, maybe Suljovic just favourite.
So, seeing as Ian is 17/10, he has to be backed.
Ian's recent success on the tour is nothing new, he's a real consistent type who is a concern for all of his opponents.
White has won twice on tour since February and has reached another final and four semi-finals in the last four months. He's a former quarter-finalist here.
Mensur leads the head-to-head 5-3, and he has the has the winning record on the big stage too, but these two when they meet normally produce long drawn-out affairs. They met in the Grand Prix last year and Mensur won 2-1 in sets. They met at the European championship and Mensur won that also, by 10 legs to 9.
I see this going deep, maybe even to extra legs.
But, like I stated, this is solely a price-based punt, White is being underestimated here.
Wright's darts aren't right weapons for hitting 180s
This could be the bet of the century. OK, I'll calm down - it looks a good bet, let's leave it there.
The reason behind my optimism? Peter Wright was using different darts (shock) in his first round win over Jelle Klaasen.
The bombs he used do not lend themselves to hitting maximums, they are bulbous things that take up so much of the bed it's difficult to get three in there.
Peter only hit two 180s against Klaasen, while Kim Huybrechts was destroying the 60 bed against John Henderson, and hit eight.
The yearly stats state that Wright hits more than Huybrechts; this is fact, but if Snakebite uses the same darts he will hit fewer and Kim will win the 180 battle.
I see this match going a fair old distance too. When they have met over the longer format matches in the last few years it's invariably gone deep. With that said maybe there's value here for just betting against Wright's 180s - the spread is under 4.5. LET'S DO IT.
And I'm going to back Kim to hit more at 11/10.