Dan Fitch is backing Michael van Gerwen to give himself a chance of making the Premier League play-offs, but the Dutchman faces a nervous night.
"MVG’s leg advantage currently stands at just +2, so he will be keen to give that a boost with a big win against Gurney, who is out of contention for the play-offs."
Premier League Darts - Night 16
Saturday 5 September
With just one more night of the Premier League remaining, only Glen Durrant has booked his place in the play-offs.
The other three places are open to five players. With 19 points and a strong leg difference of +11, second place Gary Anderson has probably done enough already, unless he loses heavily against sixth placed Gerwyn Price, who needs a win.
Third placed Peter Wright has the chance to guarantee his place by winning his opening match of the night, while Nathan Aspinall in fourth, will be hoping to keep fifth placed Michael van Gerwen out of the play-off spots. It should be a thrilling night Wright is now the favourite to win the Premier League at [3.6], with MVG at [4.0], Anderson at [4.3] and Durrant at [4.5].
Anderson value to eliminate Price
Gerwyn Price [2.36] v Gary Anderson [2.5]; The Draw [4.9]
Start time 19:15
It's now or never for Price, who needs to win and hope that neither Van Gerwen or Aspinall pick up points.
That seems like a big ask against Anderson. The Scot also needs a result, as he looks to guarantee his place in the last four and is unlikely to want to leave anything to chance. Anderson lost to Van Gerwen 8-6 on Friday, but still averaged 100.33. Back Anderson in the Draw No Bet market at [2.0].
Van Gerwen needs conclusive victory
Michael van Gerwen [1.53] v Daryl Gurney [5.0]; The Draw [6.0]
Start time 19:55
Van Gerwen is in the unusual position of not being in charge of his own destiny. Even if he wins against Gurney, he could miss out on a place in the play-offs if Wright and Aspinall get the results they need and maintain their leg difference advantage.
MVG's leg advantage currently stands at just +2, so he will be keen to give that a boost with a big win against Gurney, who is out of contention for the play-offs. With Van Gerwen having looked much better in his victory over Anderson, back him to win the match, score the most 180s and highest checkout at [4.2].
Snakebite will get win he needs
Peter Wright [1.77] v Michael Smith [3.8]; The Draw [5.2]
Start time 20:35
Given Wright's leg difference of +15, a draw will be enough to send him through to the play-offs.
Smith's draw with Price on Friday night, ended his hopes of progression. With Wright much more motivated and in better form, he looks a relatively good value to win at [1.77].
Aspinall will maintain standards in crunch match
Nathan Aspinall [2.38] v Glen Durrant [2.56]; The Draw [5.1]
Start time 21:15
Durrant has all but won the league section of the competition. He would have to lose heavily and see Anderson win by enough legs to overturn what is currently a 14 leg difference between the players, in Durrant's favour.
With Durrant able to lose and still win the league, it's no surprise to see Aspinall favourite, in a match he will almost certainly need to win. The result is a tough one to predict though, so for the third successive day we're suggesting backing Aspinall to average over 97.5 at [1.83], which he has managed in seven of the nine matches he's played since the Premier League returned.
Dan Fitch Darts Premier League P/L 2020
Staked: 67.00 pts
Returned: 54.89 pts
P/L: -12.11 pts
Back Anderson draw no bet against Price at [2.0]
Back Van Gerwen to beat Gurney, score the most 180s and highest checkout at [4.2]
Back Wright to beat Smith at [1.77]
Back Aspinall against Durrant to average over 97.5 at [1.83]