It's Judgement Night on Thursday in the Premier League Darts and Dan Fitch has found a value bet in the match between the big scorers Nathan Aspinall and Michael Smith.
"Smith is a heavy scorer, but no one has scored more 180s in this competition than Aspinall this season."
Premier League Darts - Night Nine
Thursday 27 August
Live on Sky Sports Action
Glen Durrant's fine form in the Premier League Darts continued on Wednesday night when he defeated Michael van Gerwen 7-3.
The victory saw Durrant move ahead of Van Gerwen and back to the top of the Premier League. Durrant is now in to [8.6] to win the Premier League, but MVG remains the favourite at [2.2].
At the other end of the table Daryl Gurney produced an impressive performance to beat Nathan Aspinall and climb off the bottom of the Premier League. Rob Cross fell down into the elimination position as he was defeated by Michael Smith and is now the [1.14] favourite to finish bottom and leave the competition on Judgement Night.
Top will beat bottom
Glen Durrant [1.92] v Rob Cross [3.6]; The Draw [4.4]
Start time 18:45
We've seen the battling qualities of those towards the bottom of the Premier League in recent nights and now Cross must dig deep to get a result to climb the table.
His poor form suggests that he will struggle against Durrant, who is top of the Premier League for a reason. Given their respective league positions, the price of [1.92] for Durrant to beat Cross looks generous.
Aspinall is the 180 king
Nathan Aspinall [2.54] v Michael Smith [2.48]; The Draw [4.3]
Start time 19:25
Smith moved ahead of Aspinall last night, but they are level on points and this looks set to be a tight game between the young players, which could go either way.
With the result in some doubt, look to the most 180s market for some value. Smith is a heavy scorer, but no one has scored more 180s in this competition than Aspinall this season and his price of [2.98] as the outsider, looks too big.
Can Gurney improvement continue?
Peter Wright [1.71] v Daryl Gurney [3.9]; The Draw [4.6]
Start time 20:05
Gurney produced a performance that he has previously looked incapable of, when winning against Aspinall on Wednesday. Wright's price looks a little too short under the circumstances.
This could be a closer and better quality match than these odds indicate, if Gurney can maintain his form. Over 6.5 180s can land at [2.1].
Big guns will look to bounce back
Michael van Gerwen [1.76] v Gary Anderson [3.8]; The Draw [4.7]
Start time 20:45
Both players will want to forget Wednesday night, with Van Gerwen losing 7-3 to Durrant and Anderson being beaten 7-1 by Gerwyn Price.
They both produced much better performances on Tuesday and that's probably a better indication of the standard we can expect to see tonight. This is another match in which over 6.5 180s looks to have a chance of paying out, at odds of [2.1].
Price is right for Gerwyn
Jermaine Wattimena [5.0] v Gerwyn Price [1.6]; The Draw [4.9]
Start time 21:25
As tonight's Challenger, Wattimena should have been getting cheered on by a passionate Dutch crowd. Instead he'll be playing in an empty venue in Milton Keynes.
We saw Wright take apart Wattimena's compatriot Jeffrey de Kwaan last night and this could go the same way. Price is [3.0] to win the match, score the most 180s and highest checkout.
Dan Fitch Darts Premier League P/L 2020
Staked: 40.00 pts
Returned: 28.18 pts
P/L: -11.82 pts
Back Durrant to beat Cross at [1.92]
Back Aspinall to score more 180s than Smith at [2.98]
Back over 6.5 180s between Wright and Gurney at [2.1]
Back over 6.5 180s between Van Gerwen and Anderson at [2.1]
Back Price to beat Wattimena, score the most 180s and highest checkout at [3.0]