Dirk van Duijvenbode is not the highest ranked player in Group 23 of the PDC Home Tour, but Dan Fitch argues that his form makes him a worthy favourite.
"Van Duivenbode is a worthy favourite, having made the semi-finals of two Players Championship events this year and the last-32 of the UK Open."
PDC Home Tour
Saturday 9 May
Live on Betfair Live Video
The odds indicate that Group 23 could be a very tight contest, with at least three players battling to make the next stage.
Dirk van Duijvenbode is the favourite at [2.8], but he's not far ahead of the joint second favourites Kyle Anderson and Martin Schindler at [3.25]. The outsider is Daniel Larsson at [8.0].
Rob Cross progressed from his group on Thursday, which has resulted in a further shakeup of the betting for the tournament winner. Nathan Aspinall is back as favourite, but now out at [9.0], having flip-flopped with second favourite Glen Durrant, who is at [9.2]. Cross is the joint third favourite at [11.0], along with Dave Chisnall.
More even match than odds suggest
Kyle Anderson [1.5] v Daniel Larsson [2.7]
Start time 19:30
Anderson has not been particularly active on the tour so far this year and hasn't been that successful when he has appeared.
His opponent Larsson is a newcomer to the tour having just won his card. So far the Swede has earned exactly the same amount of money this year as Anderson, so let's back this to be a competitive game, with over 7.5 legs available at 8/11 on the Sportsbook.
In-form players can break 180s limit
Martin Schindler [2.24] v Dirk van Duijvenbode [1.73]
Start time 20:00
Two young in-form Europeans meet, as Germany's Schindler takes on Van Duivenbode from Holland. The 27-year old Van Duivenbode is a worthy favourite, having made the semi-finals of two Players Championship events this year and the last-32 of the UK Open.
At 23, Schindler is a little younger and shows much promise. He reached the same stage of the UK Open and has made the final of two Development Tour Events. With these opponents playing well, let's take a chance on both scoring two or more 180s at 13/8.
Van Duijvenbode can overcome handicap
Daniel Larsson [2.92] v Dirk van Duijvenbode [1.46]
Start time 20:30
Van Duijvenbode is in good form, but for a player ranked at 77 in the world, his price is a little too slim here.
It makes backing him a difficult proposition. Odds of [1.72] in the handicap market at -1.5, are just big enough to recommend doing so.
Anderson has perfect record against opponent
Kyle Anderson [1.8] v Martin Schindler [2.16]
Start time 21:00
Anderson's form is not great. He has however, won both of his matches against Schindler, so the odds look about right here.
Both games were won by a clear margin and this is another occasion when backing the favourite at -1.5 on the handicap market makes sense. This time round the odds are a more generous [2.38].
Schindler can win big against Larsson
Martin Schindler [1.54] v Daniel Larsson [2.64]
Start time 21:30
Schindler should be favourite, but this seems another example of the odds being a little skewed in one direction.
Let's boost the odds by backing Schindler to win the match and score the most 180s at a price of 5/4.
Form favours Van Duijvenbode
Dirk van Duijvenbode [1.89] v Kyle Anderson [2.08]
Start time 22:00
As the world number 45, Anderson is the highest ranked player in this group, but based on current form you have to say that Van Duijvenbode should win this.
His price of [1.89] to do so, looks decent value and there's no need to add any caveats which will reduce the likelihood of it landing.
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Back over 7.5 legs between Anderson and Larsson at 8/11
Back Schindler and Van Duijvenbode to both score two or more 180s at 13/8
Back Van Duijvenbode -1.5 against Larsson at [1.72]
Back Anderson -1.5 against Schindler at [2.38]
Back Schindler to beat Larsson and swcore the most 180s at 5/4
Back Van Duijvenbode to beat Anderson at [1.89]