Dan Fitch doesn't think the tournament favourite Peter Wright offers much value given his record so far and expects Cristo Reyes to spring some surprises...
"This is the only game that Reyes is a favourite in and given his previous record, it makes sense to back him to win."
PDC Home Tour
Tuesday 26 May
Live on Betfair Live Video
The PDC Home Tour returns for the Play-Off stage. The remaining 32 players all won their qualification groups and are now split up into eight groups of four, in which they will face each other in a round robin format.
Group 1 sees the world champion Peter Wright as the favourite to top the mini-league at [1.51]. Jelle Klaasen is second favourite at [5.4], with Cristo Reyes at [6.4] and Ryan Murray at [9.2].
The winners of the eight groups will go through to the semi-final stage, where they will again compete in groups of four, with the top two going through to the final. Wright is the favourite to win the tournament at [5.6], ahead of Gary Anderson and Nathan Aspinall, who are both priced at [10.5].
Wright average set high
Peter Wright [1.19] v Ryan Murray [5.8]
Start time 19:35
Wright's status as group and tournament favourite is based more upon his ranking and position in the sport, than his performances in this tournament. 'Snakebite' needed two attempts to qualify for this stage and in both of the groups he competed in, he lost one of his three games.
He should nevertheless have too much for Murray, who only won his tour card in January and also lost one of his three games when topping Group 20. With it being hard to find much value in a Wright win, instead back his average to be under 98.5 on the Sportsbook at 5/6, which was the case in five of his six group games.
Tight match could go long
Cristo Reyes [2.08] v Jelle Klaasen [1.83]
Start time 20:05
It's arguable as to whether Reyes should be the outsider here. Klaasen has proved himself a good player in this format, both when winning Group 7 and in the Darts at Home event, but Reyes won all three of his matches in Group 29, against a trio of players that had all finished second in their previous groups.
At this stage of the tournament each game will be a best of eleven legs and this could be a tight one. Back over 9.5 legs at 10/11.
Klaasen can win with some heavy scoring
Ryan Murray [2.62] v Jelle Klaasen [1.6]
Start time 20:30
Klaasen should perhaps not be favourite against Reyes, but it is right that he's favoured against Murray, who in theory should be the weakest player in this group.
His price to win is a little short though, so back a Klaasen win and for him to score the most 180s at 10/11.
Records suggest that 180s bet will land
Peter Wright [1.27] v Cristo Reyes [4.1]
Start time 21:00
If the hypothesis that Wright is being overrated and Reyes underrated is correct, then these odds are too far apart. Yet Wright's dominant record against Reyes (P10 W9 L1), makes it hard to back any kind of upset.
Instead go for both players to score two or more 180s at Evens. Both Wright in Group 32 and Reyes in Group 29 scored at least two 180s in each of their three games.
Reyes will overcome handicap in his final game
Cristo Reyes [1.62] v Ryan Murray [2.42]
Start time 21:30
This is the only game that Reyes is a favourite in and given his previous record, it makes sense to back him to win.
Over the longer format, go for Reyes to overcome the handicap of -1.5 at [2.10].
Wright has dominated Klaasen
Jelle Klaasen [3.4] v Peter Wright [1.34]
Start time 22:00
Wright's record against Klaasen looks a strong one when you glance at it and really impressive when you analyse it.
In 17 games, Wright has won 13 (L4), but all of those wins have come within the last 14 encounters (L1). With that sort of record let's back Wright to win the match, score the most 180s and highest checkout with an OddsBoost of 5/2.
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Back Wright’s average to be under 98.5 against Murray at 5/6
Back over 9.5 legs between Reyes and Klaasen at 10/11
Back Klaasen to beat Murray and score the most 180s at 10/11
Back Wright and Reyes to both score two or more 180s at Evens
Back Reyes -1.5 against Murray at [2.1]
Back Wright to beat Klaasen, score the most 180s and highest checkout at 5/2