Dan Fitch is expecting Group 4 of the PDC Home Tour Play-Offs to be competitive, with plenty of surprises...
"While Webster got better with each game last time round, his growing form did not have much impact on the number of 180s that he scored."
PDC Home Tour
Friday 29 May
Live on Betfair Live Video
A number of big names have already been knocked out of the Play-Off stage of the PDC Home Tour, which puts pressure on any favourite in the remaining groups.
In Group 4, the world number eleven Dave Chisnall is the favourite at [1.86]. Damon Heta is the second favourite at [3.3], with Darren Webster at [6.4] and Geert Nentjes at [10.0].
With Peter Wright and Glen Durrant being eliminated in the first two groups, there have been major changes in the tournament winner betting. Nathan Aspinall is the new favourite at [7.2], ahead of Gary Anderson at [8.8], who plays in Group 3 on Thursday.
180s will flow
Dave Chisnall [1.62] v Damon Heta [2.4]
Start time 19:35
Chisnall won all three of his games in Group 3 with some ease. He might be a little too short against the Group 17 winner Heta though, as the Australian is a capable player whose lowly ranking of 108 is largely down to the fact that he's been based in his native country for his whole career and has only just joined the main tour this year.
Both players can be heavy scorers and with the longer format the odds of 9/4 on the Sportsbook for Chisnall and Heta to both score three 180s, could be worth a punt.
Tight game ahead
Darren Webster [1.76] v Geert Nentjes [2.14]
Start time 20:05
Webster and Nentjes both won all three of their respective group games. Webster is a narrow favourite reflecting his superior ranking, but at 21-years old, Nentjes is a player with a bright future.
The value lies with the young Dutchman, but what seems certain is that this match will be competitive. Back over 9.5 legs at 10/11.
Both players scored heavily in previous groups
Damon Heta [1.5] v Geert Nentjes [2.88]
Start time 20:35
Having won their only previous encounter 6-3 as recently as February, Heta is a worthy favourite, but still looks a little too short against Nentjes.
Again, backing the 180s to flow from Heta and his opponent could be the way to go. Nentjes scored a total of eight in his three group games and you can back both players to score two or more 180s at 11/10.
Webster grew better as group progressed
Dave Chisnall [1.37] v Darren Webster [3.3]
Start time 21:00
Chisnall only leads 4-3 in prior meetings with Webster and there's every reason to think that this one will be tighter than the odds suggest.
While a lot of players' standards drop with each of their three games, Webster played progressively better in Group 15. Over 9.5 legs is 11/10.
Heta will win 180s war
Darren Webster [2.38] v Damon Heta [1.62]
Start time 21:30
While Webster got better with each game last time round, his growing form did not have much impact on the number of 180s that he scored.
In total he only scored two across three matches and Heta looks a big price at [2.08] to score the most 180s.
Big outsider has recent win over favourite
Geert Nentjes [3.8] Dave Chisnall [1.3]
Start time 22:00
This match provides the shortest odds for Chisnall and a possible opportunity for us. When these two met at a Players Championship event back in February, Nentjes won 6-5.
With that in mind, it's worth taking a chance on Nentjes to win again at a big price of [3.8].
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Back Chisnall and Heta to both score three 180s at 9/4
Back over 9.5 legs between Webster and Nentjes at 10/11
Back Heta and Nentjes to both score two 180s at 11/10
Back over 9.5 legs between Chisnall and Webster at 11/10
Back Heta to score more 180s than Webster at [2.08]
Back Nentjes to beat Chisnall at [3.8]