Simon Whitlock is the favourite in Group 11 of the PDC Home Tour and Dan Fitch is expecting his class to tell.
"Whitlock has won four of his five career encounters with Shepherd, with his most recent victory coming last year."
PDC Home Tour
Monday 27 April
Live on Betfair Live Video
Saturday night saw another top ten ranked player exit the PDC Home Tour, as Michael Smith failed to make it out of Group 9.
Simon Whitlock should be pleased that he's ranked at 14 by the PDC, safely away from the top ten danger zone. Whitlock is the favourite to win Group 11 at 1.9110/11, ahead of Alan Tabern at 5.59/2, Mike van Duivenbode at 6.05/1 and Kirk Shepherd at 6.611/2.
Smith's exit saw the price of the favourite Dave Chisnall come in to 9.417/2 to win the tournament. Rob Cross is the new second favourite at 13.5.
Whitlock is reliable with 180s
Simon Whitlock 1.51/2 v Mike van Duivenbode 2.89/5
Start time 19:30
Now 51, 'The Wizard' is still playing at high level and had made a very solid start to the season before it was interrupted.
Van Duivenbode is still only 21, but shouldn't be underestimated given the success that young Dutch players have had in the tournament. That said, you have to expect Whitlock to claim victory and as a reliable scorer of 180s, back him to win the match and score the most 180s at 5/4 on the Sportsbook.
Tabern has perfect record against opponent
Kirk Shepherd 2.111/10 v Alan Tabern 1.834/5
Start time 20:00
Tabern has won all three matches against Shepherd, with the most recent victory coming in March when he triumphed 6-5 in a European Tour Card Holder Qualifier.
Such a record suggests that Tabern's price represents good value, so back him to win again at 1.834/5.
Go long in tight game
Mike van Duivenbode 1.910/11 v Alan Tabern 2.021/1
Start time 20:30
It's not surprising that the odds are tight here, with only one ranking place separating the world number 97 Van Duivenbode and Tabern in 98th position.
With neither player being in standout form, this could be a tight one that goes over 7.5 legs at 4/6.
Wizard will put a spell on Shepherd
Simon Whitlock 1.412/5 v Kirk Shepherd 3.412/5
Start time 21:00
Whitlock has won four of his five career encounters with Shepherd, with his most recent victory coming last year.
The Australian is 1.875/6 to win with -1.5 in the handicap market.
Dutch courage will be on display from youngster
Kirk Shepherd 2.1411/10 v Mike van Duivenbode 1.865/6
Start time 21:30
As mentioned, young players from Holland have fared well in this tournament, with Van Duivenbode's fellow twenty-something countrymen Geert Nentjes and Martijn Kleermaker both having topped their groups.
Van Duivenbode has yet to really prove his ability on the professional circuit, but let's back the Dutch trend to continue, with a win for him at 1.865/6.
Whitlock has great record against Tabern
Alan Tabern 3.185/40 v Simon Whitlock 1.422/5
Start time 22:00
Whitlock is something of a bogeyman for Tabern. 'The Wizard' has conjured up wins in twelve of their 15 meetings (L3).
With such a dominant record, the Sportsbook's OddsBoost of 3/1 for Whitlock to win the match, score the most 180s and record the highest checkout, cannot be ignored.
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Back Whitlock to beat Van Duivenbode and score the most 180s at 5/4
Back Tabern to beat Shepherd at 1.834/5
Back over 7.5 legs between Van Duivenbode and Tabern at 4/6
Back Whitlock -1.5 against Shepherd at 1.875/6
Back Van Duivenbode to beat Shepherd at 1.865/6
Back Whitlock to beat Tabern, score the most 180s and highest checkout at 3/1