Jeff Smith has fared well this year and Dan Fitch thinks he can match Ricky Evans in Group 16 of the PDC Home Tour...
"Having won a tour card at Q-School, Smith immediately made the final of the Players Championship event in Barnsley, beating the likes of Chisnall, Aspinall and Peter Wright, before losing to Gary Anderson in the final."
PDC Home Tour
Saturday 2 May
Live on Betfair Live Video
The first stage of the mammoth PDC Home Tour reaches the halfway stage on Saturday when Group 16 will be decided.
It's the 29th ranked played in the world, Ricky Evans that leads the betting in Group 16 at [2.0]. Jeff Smith is the second favourite at [2.88], with Christian Bunse at [5.5] and Martin Atkins at [8.0].
Evans can win 180s battle
Ricky Evans [1.3] v Martin Atkins [3.6]
Start time 19:35
Evans has been in solid if unspectacular form this year, regularly taking home price money, but not getting past the last-16 of any tournament.
He should have too much for Atkins, who failed to win a tour card at Q-School and has been playing in Challenge Tour events without much success. With there being little value in backing Evans to win, go for him to score the most 180s at [1.96].
Bunse can be competitive
Christian Bunse [2.28] v Jeff Smith [1.67]
Start time 20:05
Smith has had a positive year. Having won a tour card at Q-School he immediately made the final of the Players Championship event in Barnsley, beating the likes of Chisnall, Aspinall and Peter Wright, before losing to Gary Anderson in the final.
The Canadian still looks a little short though against the young German player Bunse, who has been in OK form. This should be competitive and over 7.5 legs could land at 4/6 on the Sportsbook.
Big favourite is outsider in 180s market
Martin Atkins [2.76] v Jeff Smith [1.5]
Start time 20:35
Smith is an even shorter price against Atkins. Again it's a match that we have to assume he'll win, but finding a way to back him to do so at decent odds is tough.
It's Smith that's the outsider to score the most 180s at [2.9] and that looks a decent bet in these circumstances.
Value lies with underdog
Ricky Evans [1.37] v Christian Bunse [3.3]
Start time 21:05
There have been a lot of surprise results in this competition and Evans looks way too short here. Yes, he's the highest ranked player, but his form hasn't been that great to justify being favoured so strongly, against a young player in Bunse who has being doing quite well this year.
If a set of odds look skewed then you go where the value lies and that could be to back Bunse at [3.3].
Atkins scoring has lacked consistency
Christian Bunse [1.73] v Martin Atkins [2.1]
Start time 21:35
Atkins' lack of success in PDC Challenge events is not really surprising when you look at his averages. There have been some high scores, but overall he's struggling for consistency.
With this in mind it's worth taking another punt on a high-priced bet on Bunse. You can back the German to win and score the most 180s at 2/1.
Rivals can break 180s limit
Jeff Smith [2.28] v Ricky Evans [1.7]
Start time 22:05
With these two players being the favourites in Group 16, it's no surprise to see that the result markets are tightly poised.
An opportunity might exist in the Total 180s market. The bar has been set pretty low and you can back over 2.5 180s to land at [1.9].
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Back Evans to score more 180s than Atkins at [1.96]
Back over 7.5 legs between Bunse and Smith at 4/6
Back Smith to score most 180s against Atkins at [2.9]
Back Bunse to beat Evans at [3.3]
Back Bunse to beat Atkins and score the most 180s at 2/1
Back over 2.5 180s between Smith and Evans at [1.9]