Nathan Aspinall is one of the favourites to win the PDC Home Tour and goes up against the in-form Jose De Sousa, as Dan Fitch previews the Group 7 action...
"If the group plays out as expected, this game will decide who goes through to the semi-finals."
PDC Home Tour
Monday 1 June
Live on Betfair Live Video
One of the tournament favourites enters the Play-Off stage of the PDC Home Tour on Monday night, as Nathan Aspinall competes in Group 7.
Aspinall leads the betting to win the group at [1.91], ahead of Jose De Sousa at [3.6]. Jamie Hughes at [4.9] and Jesus Noguera at [17.5] complete the competing quartet.
Gary Anderson is the current favourite to win the tournament at [4.8], with Rob Cross now the second favourite at [6.6], after he made it through Group 5 on Saturday night. Dave Chisnall is third favourite at [7.8], with Aspinall just behind him at [8.0]. As Aspinall is the shortest priced player yet to make it through to the semi-finals, it's likely that he will become favourite if he goes through.
Class will tell in opening match
Nathan Aspinall [1.2] v Jesus Noguera [4.5]
Start time 19:35
Aspinall is very comfortable with the home darts format. He won the second Darts at Home event that preceded the PDC Home Tour and then won all three of his games in Group 10 to reach this stage.
Of all the group winners in the first phase of this competition, Noguera had the second lowest overall average, with 82.16. Aspinall should have too much for him and is 9/4 on the Sportsbook to win the match, score the most 180s and highest checkout.
De Sousa scored very heavily in last stage
Jamie Hughes [2.12] v Jose De Sousa [1.76]
Start time 20:05
Despite being the higher ranked player, Hughes is the outsider here. That's down to the outstanding performance by De Sousa when he won Group 24 with an overall average of 104.80, which is the second highest that we've seen in the tournament so far.
Odds of 5/6 for De Sousa to average over 95.5 look generous. He achieved that in all three of his group games and averaged 110.51 in his first match.
De Sousa can break average again
Jesus Noguera [3.5] v Jose De Sousa [1.3]
Start time 20:35
Aside from his form in this tournament, De Sousa is a worthy short-priced favourite here, having won both of his previous two matches against Noguera.
With his odds to win so slim, backing him to score heavily again, seems the way to go. In this match he needs to average over 94.5 to produce a 5/6 winner.
Close encounters point to long match
Nathan Aspinall [1.4] v Jamie Hughes [2.94]
Start time 21:05
This could be tighter than the odds suggest. In three previous matches, Aspinall has two wins to Hughes' one, but all three were very close affairs.
Over 9.5 legs would have paid out in all three of those games and is available at 11/10.
Hughes can overcome handicap
Jamie Hughes [1.42] v Jesus Noguera [2.88]
Start time 21:35
Hughes won all three of his games in Group 24 and if he performs at a similar level, should claim a win against Noguera.
His price is perhaps a little low, but you can boost it by backing Hughes to overcome the handicap of -1.5 at [1.87].
Aspinall will win 180s battle
Jose De Sousa [2.63] v Nathan Aspinall [1.5]
Start time 22:05
If the group plays out as expected, this game will decide who goes through to the semi-finals.
Aspinall's price is not worth backing against an opponent who has shown such form in this tournament. Instead, back Aspinall to score the most 180s at [2.34].
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Back Aspinall to beat Noguera, score the most 180s and highest checkout at 9/4
Back De Sousa to average over 95.5. against Hughes at 5/6
Back De Sousa to average over 94.5 against Noguera at 5/6
Back over 9.5 legs between Aspinall and Hughes at 11/10
Back Hughes -1.5 against Noguera at [1.87]
Back Aspinall to score more 180s than De Sousa at [2.34]