PDC Home Tour Betting: Aspinall can thrive in home format again

Dan Fitch
25 April 2020

Will Nathan Aspinall win Group 10 as expected?

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Nathan Aspinall won the second Darts at Home event and Dan Fitch is backing him to take that form into the PDC Home Tour.

"When these two met last year at a Players Championship event in Barnsley, Aspinall ran out as a 6-2 winner."

Back Aspinall -2.5 against Stevenson at 2.226/5

PDC Home Tour
Sunday 26 April
Live on Betfair Live Video

Sunday night sees the former favourite to win the PDC Home Tour in action, as Nathan Aspinall enters the tournament.

After Peter Wright and Gerwyn Price were eliminated, Aspinall was briefly installed as favourite, before Dave Chisnall made it through his group and dropped to 10.09/1. Aspinall is the second favourite at 12.5 and will no doubt be favoured again, if he can make it through Group 10.

Aspinall is rated at 1.538/15 to top the group. Competition comes from Ryan Joyce at 4.3100/30, Simon Stevenson at 7.06/1 and Steve Brown at 9.08/1.

Aspinall to make a statement in opener

Nathan Aspinall 1.251/4 v Steve Brown 3.9
Start time 19:30

Aspinall won the second Darts at Home event, which was something of a testing ground for this competition.

He will be expected to get off to a strong start against Brown, who has only just won back his tour card after some years off the circuit. Aspinall has won both his matches against Brown and is 15/8 on the Sportsbook to win the match, score the most 180s and the highest checkout.

History of tight games between opponents

Ryan Joyce 1.574/7 v Simon Stevenson 2.526/4
Start time 20:00

Joyce is quite a big favourite here, but Stevenson has won both of their encounters, albeit back in 2018 when Joyce first joined the PDC.

The two games were both decided by a single leg and over 7.5 legs consequently looks good value at 8/11.

Stevenson can win 180 battle

Steve Brown 2.3211/8 v Simon Stevenson 1.664/6
Start time 20:30

If Stevenson was a little too big in his last match, the reverse seems to be true in this game against Brown.

He's a worthy favourite, but these odds don't appeal. Instead, back him to hit the most 180s at 8/5.

180s will flow

Nathan Aspinall 1.42/5 v Ryan Joyce 3.02/1
Start time 21:00

Aspinall is a big favourite again, yet Joyce has fared well in his matches against 'The Asp', winning two of their four games (L2), which includes their last meeting.

This one could be Aspinall's most competitive match of the night, so let's steer away from the result and bank on his ability to hit the treble twenties. Aspinall has been hitting 180s consistently in the Premier League and you can back him and Joyce to score over 3.5 at 2.26/5.

Another long one for Joyce

Ryan Joyce 1.51/2 v Steve Brown 2.789/5
Start time 21:30

Again it feels like Brown's opponent is being overestimated here. Joyce should be favourite, but not to this extent.

With the odds for the result unappealing, it makes sense to again back this to be a fairly tight match for Joyce, with over 7.5 legs available at 8/11.

Aspinall will finish with big win

Simon Stevenson 3.56 v Nathan Aspinall 1.3130/100
Start time 22:00

When these two met last year at a Players Championship event in Barnsley, Aspinall ran out as a 6-2 winner.

Assuming that Aspinall shows his class on Sunday, he should be well in the groove by the time of his final match. Back him -2.5 on the handicap market at 2.226/5.

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