Dan Fitch is expecting Keegan Brown to defy the odds in Group 25 of the PDC Home Tour.
"It’s strange that Brown is the underdog here. He’s the higher ranked player and has earned more money on the tour than De Sousa this year."
PDC Home Tour
Monday 11 May
Live on Betfair Live Video
Group 25 of the PDC Home Tour features a player making his second appearance in the tournament.
Keegan Brown had to pull out of Group 12 midway through the night, after his WiFi failed. Now, with newly reliable download speeds, Brown gets a second chance in Group 25, where he is second favourite at 2/1 on the Sportsbook, behind Jose De Sousa at 5/4. Robert Thornton is third favourite at 9/2, with Reece Robinson the outsider at 11/2.
There has been more change in the tournament winner market. Nathan Aspinall and Glen Durrant are now joint favourites at [9.0], with Rob Cross just behind at [11.5]. Gary Anderson is now priced at [18.0], after it was announced that he will compete in the tournament after all, with his own dodgy Wi-Fi problems having been rectified.
Tight game to kick off
Keegan Brown [1.67] v Reece Robinson [2.24]
Start time 19:35
Past encounters between this pair have been tight, with Robinson winning four to Brown's three.
It was Robinson that won the most recent match that took place last year, but any temptation to back the outsider is tempered by his poor current form. Over 7.5 legs at 4/6 seems a safe bet.
Narrow victory in recent meeting
Jose De Sousa [1.56] v Robert Thornton [2.56]
Start time 20:05
De Sousa won two Players Championship events last year and has consistently taken home money on the tour this year, without troubling the latter stages of tournaments.
Thornton's career is on the decline, but De Sousa still looks a little too short against a player who was once one of the best in the world. When they last met in February, De Sousa won 6-4 and this seems like another game where it's best to play safe and back over 7.5 legs, this time at 8/11.
Thornton in better form
Reece Robinson [1.94] v Robert Thornton [1.96]
Start time 20:30
Robinson is favourite by the tiniest of margins, which is strange considering that Thornton is the shorter price in the group winner market.
Thornton has won both of their two previous games and is also in better form, with Robinson having only earned £500 on the tour in 2020. He's not playing great himself, but the value seems to lie with Thornton to win at [1.96].
Hard to see why favourite is so short
Keegan Brown [2.34] v Jose De Sousa [1.73]
Start time 21:00
It's strange that Brown is the underdog here. He's the higher ranked player and has earned more money on the tour than De Sousa this year.
With that in mind, his price for victory looks very good value. Back Brown to win at [2.34].
De Sousa can overcome handicap
Jose De Sousa [1.5] v Reece Robinson [2.72]
Start time 21:30
De Sousa faced the struggling Robinson as recently as February and ran out as a 6-4 winner.
If you think that De Sousa can win by a similar margin, you can back him with -1.5 in the handicap market at [2.0].
Brown has strong record against opponent
Robert Thornton [2.1] v Keegan Brown [1.73]
Start time 22:00
These opponents have a long history, having played eleven times. Thornton has won four and Brown seven, which includes each of the last three.
With those last three wins all coming by a single leg, it would seem a risk to add any caveats. Instead, simply back Brown to win at [1.73].
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Back over 7.5 legs between Brown and Robinson at 4/6
Back over 7.5 legs between De Sousa and Thornton at 8/11
Back Thornton to beat Robinson at [1.96]
Back Brown to beat De Sousa at [2.34]
Back De Sousa -1.5 against Robinson at [2.0]
Back Brown to beat Thornton at [1.73]