Dan Fitch fancies Mickey Mansell to perform well in Group 4 of the PDC Home Tour.
"Mansell has won all three of his previous matches against Smith."
PDC Home Tour
Monday 20 April
Live on Betfair Live Video
The evidence that hierarchy counts for nothing on the PDC Home Tour is growing. After Peter Wright was dumped out of the competition on the opening night, the favourite Gerwyn Price failed to win Group 2 on Saturday.
To be fair to Price, it took an exceptional performance from Luke Woodhouse to derail him. Woodhouse produced a nine-dart finish en-route to thrashing Price 5-0, recording a brilliant 113.9 average.
Group 4 is the first in the competition, where there is no clear favourite. Ross Smith, the world number 46, leads the betting at 2.727/4. Geert Nentjes is 3.613/5, with Mickey Mansell at 4.1 and Lisa Ashton at 6.05/1.
Smith far too short
Ross Smith 1.364/11 v Lisa Ashton 3.259/4
Start time 19:30
With the favourites dropping with regularity, you have to question why Smith is so short here. Unlike some of the stellar names that have gone out, he is not a top ranked player and his record in 2020 is only a little better than Ashton's.
Ashton became the first woman to win PDC Tour card through Q school back in January and the value lies with her in this one. Back Ashton at +1.5 in the handicap market at 6/5 on the Sportsbook.
Mansell should be in driving seat
Mickey Mansell 2.0811/10 v Geert Nentjes 1.875/6
Start time 19:55
The young Dutch player Nentjes has come in from his original position as third favourite, to move ahead of Mansell in the betting.
It's hard to see what this is based on, other than potential, for Mansell has been pretty consistent in 2020. Mansell is now the outsider in this match at 2.0811/10 and it makes sense to back him.
Close game could go long
Lisa Ashton 2.3811/8 v Geert Nentjes 1.635/8
Start time 20:20
Given the odds in the previous two games, it's no surprise to see Nentjes as the favourite and again he looks too short.
This promises to be a pretty even game and over 7.5 legs could well land at 8/11.
Mansell has perfect record against opponent
Ross Smith 1.558/15 v Mickey Mansell 2.747/4
Start time 20:45
Smith might be the higher ranked player, but Mansell has earned more money on the tour this year and looks underrated here.
Mansell has won all three of his previous matches against Smith and is great value to win at 2.747/4.
Back-to-back games not proving a hindrance
Mickey Mansell 1.538/15 v Lisa Ashton 2.6213/8
Start time 21:10
An unknown at the start of this tournament was how would players cope when having to compete in back-to-back games. At the time of writing, three out of four players have won their second match, when playing back-to-back.
That's a small sample, but suggests that Mansell's price is realistic. He is evens at -1.5 at the handicap market.
Smith can provide finish
Geert Nentjes 2.568/5 v Ross Smith 1.564/7
Start time 21:35
The final match of the night sees Smith as a heavy favourite against Nentjes. Again, Smith is too short, but on this occasion it's certainly right that he's favoured.
With the value not in the results markets, back Smith at 4/6 to score the highest checkout.
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Back Ashton +1.5 against Smith at 6/5
Back Mansell to beat Nentjes at 2.0811/10
Back over 7.5 legs between Ashton and Nentjes at 8/11
Back Mansell to beat Smith at 2.747/4
Back Mansell -1.5 to beat Ashton at evens
Back Smith to score the highest checkout against Nentjes at 4/6